The Air Force Falcons, also known as Air Force, travel to Laramie to face the Wyoming Cowboys, also referred to as Wyoming, at the Arena-Auditorium on February 28. This Mountain West Conference matchup may seem like a mismatch on paper, given the significant disparity in their overall and conference records. However, with both teams vying for a spot in the conference tournament, this game still holds importance for their respective postseason aspirations. For Air Force, a win would be a crucial upset, while Wyoming looks to bounce back from a recent loss and solidify their position in the conference standings.
Despite being heavy underdogs, Air Force has shown flashes of strong team defense, which could potentially pose a challenge for Wyoming's offense. Meanwhile, Wyoming's vulnerability to inconsistent shooting and rebounding margins may provide an opening for Air Force to exploit. An upset would require a near-perfect performance from Air Force, capitalizing on Wyoming's weaknesses while minimizing their own shortcomings. For Wyoming, a win would be expected, but they still need to demonstrate their ability to close out games against lesser opponents and build momentum heading into the conference tournament. With both teams relying on a conference tournament auto-bid for their only path to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are clear, and each game takes on added significance.
Averaging 12.4 points per game, has been a consistent contributor for Air Force, while the team's leading scorer has struggled to find support in recent games. With a record of 3-25, including 0-17 in the Mountain West conference, Air Force is looking to turn its season around. His 12.4 points per game have been a highlight for the team, but the overall performance has been lacking, as evidenced by the recent 80-86 loss to San José State and the 66-91 defeat at the hands of UNLV. The team's struggles are also reflected in its Quad record, with no wins in Quad 1, Quad 2, or Quad 3 games.
The team's recent form has been marked by significant losses, including a 61-98 defeat at New Mexico and a 63-93 loss at Fresno State, with ' 3.8 assists per game often not being enough to spark a turnaround. His 12.1 points per game, along with Caleb Walker's 11.2 points per game, have been notable, but the team's overall performance has been inconsistent. With 's 6.9 points per game and 's 7.5 points per game, the team has some scoring options, but its 0-17 conference record and lack of wins against top-tier opponents have raised concerns about its competitiveness.
With a 15-13 overall record and 6-11 mark in Mountain West play, Wyoming is looking to bounce back from a loss in their last outing, a 62-72 defeat at Boise State. Averaging 14.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 3.6 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the offense. His 2.9 rebounds per game also demonstrate Walker's versatility. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their win over Grand Canyon, 70-65, just three days prior to the Boise State loss.
The team's chances of success often rely on the performance of key players, including , whose 12.8 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game make him a vital contributor. 's 5.0 rebounds per game and 2.9 assists per game have also been important, as his all-around skills help to balance the team's attack. , with his 10.3 points per game, has been another key factor, and his ability to score has been essential in Wyoming's victories, including their 92-82 win over Fresno State.
The matchup between Kam Sanders and Leland Walker will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary playmakers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the flow of the game. Sanders' ability to balance scoring and distributing the ball, with 3.8 assists per game, will be tested by Walker's own scoring prowess and playmaking skills. If Sanders can outmaneuver Walker and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, Air Force may be able to gain an advantage.
Walker's scoring average of 14.5 points per game makes him a formidable opponent, and Sanders will need to be able to contain him while also finding ways to score against Wyoming's defense. The winner of this individual matchup will likely give their team a significant edge, as both players have the ability to take over the game and dictate the tempo. The team that can gain the upper hand in this battle will be well-positioned to emerge victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Air Force
61
Wyoming
85
The model's prediction of a 24-point Wyoming victory, with a 96.6% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the game. I agree with the model, as the significant disparity in team quality, reflected in their respective NET rankings, suggests that Wyoming should dominate this matchup. Specifically, the fact that Air Force is ranked 350th in the NET, indicating a substantial gap in overall team strength, leads me to believe that Wyoming will emerge victorious, as their superior talent and ability will likely prove too much for the struggling Falcons to overcome.
As the Mountain West conference schedule winds down, both Air Force and Wyoming are focused on positioning themselves for a potential run in the conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for Wyoming would help solidify their standing in the middle of the conference pack, while a loss could jeopardize their chances of securing a favorable seed in the tournament. For Air Force, a victory would be a significant upset and a much-needed boost to their morale, but ultimately, their conference tournament prospects remain a long shot. With Wyoming holding a significant advantage in the standings, this game is more about maintaining momentum for the Cowboys, while the Falcons are simply looking to play spoiler. The outcome of this Quad 4 matchup for Wyoming, and Quad 2 for Air Force, will have a lasting impact on the trajectory of each program, and it's clear that Wyoming's postseason hopes are on far more stable ground, making Air Force's potential upset all the more crucial in a season that has been defined by disappointment.