NCAA Tournament Bracket Projections
Bracketology projects the 68-team NCAA Tournament field by evaluating every Division I team's resume. The model uses NET rankings, quad records, strength of schedule, and efficiency margins to rank teams and assign projected seed lines (1–16 in each of four regions).
The 32 automatic bids go to each conference tournament champion. The remaining 36 at-large spots are filled based on overall resume quality. Teams on the bubble— those ranked roughly 30th to 55th in NET with mixed quad records—are categorized as Last Four In, First Four Out, or Next Four Out. Projections update daily as game results shift NET rankings and quad records.
FAQ
How does bracketology work?
Bracketology projects the NCAA Tournament field by evaluating each team's resume using NET rankings, quad records, strength of schedule, and overall record. Teams are classified as locks, bubble teams, or out. The 32 automatic bids go to conference tournament champions, while the remaining 36 spots are at-large selections chosen by the selection committee.
What is a bubble team?
A bubble team is on the edge of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large selection. These teams typically have NET rankings between 35-55, mixed quad records, and their tournament fate depends on late-season results. Bubble teams are categorized as Last Four In, First Four Out, or Next Four Out.
How often are bracketology projections updated?
College Hoops Data updates bracketology projections daily based on the latest game results, NET rankings changes, and quad record updates. Projections become more accurate as the season progresses and more data is available.
What are auto-bids vs at-large bids?
Auto-bids (32 total) go to the winner of each conference tournament — every conference champion makes the field regardless of record. At-large bids (36 total) are selected by the NCAA selection committee based on overall resume quality, primarily NET ranking, quad records, and strength of schedule.
Related Pages
Data sourced from ESPN. Predictions by the CHD Scout model. Methodology | Accuracy Record