Data-driven strategies for building a winning 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket
Use Data, Not Gut Feelings
The biggest mistake casual bracket-makers commit is picking based on team names and past glory rather than current-season performance. A mid-major with a top-30 NET ranking and 10 Quad 1 wins is a far better tournament pick than a blue blood that scraped into the field at 18-13.
Our prediction model has achieved 76%+ winner accuracy this season by focusing on measurable factors: adjusted efficiency, NET rankings, quad records, and player form. Apply the same approach to your bracket.
Historical Seed Performance
Before picking any upsets, know the base rates:
- 1 vs 16: The 1-seed wins 99.4% of the time. Do not pick this upset.
- 2 vs 15: The 2-seed wins about 94%. Only pick this in large pools.
- 3 vs 14: The 3-seed wins about 85%.
- 4 vs 13: The 4-seed wins about 79%. Upsets happen roughly 1 in 5 times.
- 5 vs 12: The 5-seed wins about 65%. This is the most popular upset pick.
- 6 vs 11: Nearly a coin flip at about 63% for the 6-seed.
- 7 vs 10: About 61% for the 7-seed.
- 8 vs 9: True coin flip, about 52% for the 8-seed.
Pick at least one 12-over-5 upset. Consider one 11-over-6 and one 13-over-4 in your bracket.
Defense Travels
In the NCAA Tournament, teams play on neutral courts against unfamiliar opponents. Offensive systems that rely on home-court familiarity and crowd energy often struggle. But elite defense travels everywhere.
Teams ranked in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency consistently outperform their seed in tournament play. When choosing between two similarly-seeded teams for a deep run, pick the one with better defense.
Experience and Depth Matter
The tournament is a grueling six-game sprint. Teams with:
- Upperclassmen who have played in March before
- Bench depth (at least 7-8 reliable players)
- A point guard who protects the ball (low turnover rate)
...tend to survive and advance. One-and-done freshman-heavy rosters are more volatile and prone to cold shooting nights.
Mid-Majors as Dark Horses
Do not sleep on mid-major conference champions with strong NET rankings. Teams from the WCC, MVC, A-10, and Mountain West have caused havoc in recent tournaments. Look for mid-majors with:
- NET ranking in the top 50
- At least one quality non-conference win
- A veteran roster with tournament experience
- Strong 3-point shooting (the great equalizer in upsets)
Final Four Strategy
In most bracket pools, the Final Four picks carry the most weight. Do not waste them on trendy upset picks. Focus on:
- 1-seeds and 2-seeds with elite defense and experienced rosters
- Teams with balanced offense (not dependent on one scorer)
- Programs with recent Final Four experience
- Check our tournament simulator to see which teams have the strongest resumes
Frequently Asked Questions
How many upsets should I pick in my March Madness bracket?
A good strategy is to pick 3-4 first-round upsets: at least one 12-over-5, one 11-over-6, and possibly one 13-over-4. Avoid picking a 16-over-1 upset. The key is being selective — pick upsets where a mid-major has strong efficiency metrics and tournament experience, not just any lower seed.
What is the most common upset in the NCAA Tournament first round?
The 12-seed over 5-seed upset is the most common and popular pick, occurring roughly 35% of the time. The 5-seed only wins about 65% of these matchups, making it the most reliable upset to target. The 11 vs 6 matchup is nearly as volatile, with the 6-seed winning only about 63% of the time.
Should I pick my favorite team to win the NCAA Tournament?
Only if the data supports it. Fan bias is one of the biggest bracket killers. Evaluate your favorite team the same way you would any other: check their NET ranking, quad record, defensive efficiency, and roster experience. If they are a 1 or 2 seed with elite defense, go for it. Otherwise, let the numbers guide your pick.
What stats matter most for predicting NCAA Tournament success?
Adjusted defensive efficiency is the single best predictor of tournament success. Teams in the top 30 nationally in defensive efficiency consistently outperform their seed. Other key factors include turnover rate (low is good), 3-point shooting, roster experience, and bench depth. Offensive-only teams tend to flame out early.