As the college basketball season heats up, Alabama State and Alabama A&M are set to face off in a neutral-site showdown that could have real consequences for their tournament resumes. Both teams are currently on the outside looking in, with Alabama State boasting a 303 NET ranking and Alabama A&M sitting at 314. However, a win in this matchup could provide a much-needed boost to their quad records, particularly in the lower quadrants where both teams have struggled.
Alabama A&M, favored by 1.5 points, want to capitalize on their recent form, which has seen them go 2-1 in their last three games. Meanwhile, Alabama State is seeking to bounce back from a loss in their previous outing. The Hornets' 3-3 conference record suggests they're capable of competing with the best in the SWAC, but their 0-2 mark in Quad 1 games is a major concern. With the CHD Scout prediction giving Alabama A&M a 67.3% win probability, it's clear that the Bulldogs have a slight edge here.
CHD Scout Prediction
Alabama A&M
75
Alabama State
70
Given the tight spread and the relatively low over/under of 146.5, this game is likely to be a defensive grind. Alabama State must find a way to contain Alabama A&M's offense, which has shown flashes of brilliance this season. In the end, I predict Alabama A&M will emerge victorious, 75-70, thanks to their slight edge in overall talent and their ability to capitalize on Alabama State's struggles in Quad 1 and 2 games. The Bulldogs' win will be a crucial step in building their tournament resume, but Alabama State will still have plenty of opportunities to make a push in the SWAC.