The Alabama Crimson Tide, boasting a 6-4 conference record and a 23 NET ranking, are looking to bounce back from their recent loss, which snapped a 2-game winning streak, with their last 3 games resulting in a 2-1 record. Meanwhile, the Mississippi Rebels are on a 3-game losing skid, and with a quad record of 1-9 in Quad 1 games, they urgently need a marquee win to revitalize their tournament hopes. The Rebels' 3-7 conference record and 81 NET ranking indicate a steep uphill climb, but a victory over Alabama, which would be their 2nd Quad 1 win, could significantly bolster their resume.
Alabama's 38.5% Three-Point Shooting Percentage Leads the SEC
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will take place at The Sandy and John Black Pavilion at Ole Miss, with streaming available on the SEC Network.
The Alabama Crimson Tide have compiled an impressive 16-7 overall record, with a 6-4 mark in the SEC, and boast a 23 NET ranking. Their quad record stands at 6-6 in Quad 1 games, 5-1 in Quad 2 games, and a perfect 3-0 in Quad 3 games, demonstrating their ability to compete against top-tier opponents. Alabama's recent form shows a 2-1 record in their last 3 games, with their only loss coming by a margin of 5 points. The Crimson Tide average 82.1 points per game, with their offense ranking 15th nationally in adjusted efficiency, according to KenPom.
The Mississippi Rebels, with an 11-12 overall record and a 3-7 conference record, are struggling to find consistency, particularly in Quad 1 games, where they have managed only 1 win in 10 attempts. Their 81 NET ranking and quad record of 1-9 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 in Quad 2 games, and 2-1 in Quad 3 games, indicate a team that has faced significant challenges against top competition. The Rebels are on a 3-game losing streak, with their last 3 games resulting in a 0-3 record, and are averaging 74.5 points per game, which ranks 120th nationally. They must improve their defensive performance, which ranks 143rd in adjusted efficiency, to have a chance against Alabama's high-powered offense.
The matchup between Alabama's potent offense, which averages 82.1 points per game, and Ole Miss's defense, which allows 73.2 points per game, matters. Alabama's offense is fueled by their 38.5% three-point shooting, which ranks 20th nationally, while Ole Miss's defense has struggled to contain opponents from beyond the arc, allowing 36.2% three-point shooting. The pace of the game will also be important, as Alabama prefers to play at a faster tempo, averaging 72.5 possessions per game, while Ole Miss averages 69.1 possessions per game. If the Rebels can slow down the Crimson Tide's offense and limit their three-point opportunities, they may be able to stay competitive.
CHD Scout Prediction
Alabama
84
Ole Miss
79
For Alabama, Brandon Miller is averaging 18.5 points per game, while Noah Clowney is contributing 10.2 points and 8.1 rebounds per game. Mark Sears has been on a hot streak, scoring 15.5 points per game over his last 5 games, with a 45.5% three-point shooting percentage. For Ole Miss, Matthew Murrell is averaging 15.1 points per game, while Amaree Abram is contributing 10.5 points and 4.2 rebounds per game. Jaemyn Brakefield has been struggling, scoring only 8.5 points per game over his last 5 games, with a 35.7% field goal percentage.
The CHD Scout prediction favors Alabama by 4.4 points, with a 35% win probability for Ole Miss. This prediction suggests that while the Rebels have a chance to pull off the upset, the Crimson Tide's offense and overall strength are likely to prove too much for them. The predicted score of 84-79 in favor of Alabama indicates a high-scoring game, with both teams likely to exceed their season averages.
A win for Ole Miss would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, as it would give them a 2nd Quad 1 win and improve their NET ranking. However, with a current quad record of 1-9 in Quad 1 games, the Rebels would still face an uphill climb to secure a tournament bid. For Alabama, a win would solidify their position as a top-4 seed, while a loss would drop them to 6-5 in the SEC and potentially hurt their chances of securing a top seed. The Crimson Tide's quad record of 6-6 in Quad 1 games and 5-1 in Quad 2 games demonstrates their ability to compete against top-tier opponents, but they must continue to perform well in their remaining games to maintain their position.