In a stunning turn of events, Florida A&M (Rattlers) upended Alabama State (Hornets) by a 13-point margin, 76-63, at the Al Lawson Center. The upset is particularly noteworthy given the Hornets' higher NET ranking, #314, compared to the Rattlers' #333. This victory could have significant implications for seed lines in the upcoming tournament.
The Rattlers' 40-31 first-half lead set the tone for the game, but the Hornets' strong second-half effort was not enough to overcome the deficit. Florida A&M's second-half output of 36 points to Alabama State's 32 is a telling statistic, suggesting the Rattlers' consistency was a key factor in their victory.
Antonio Baker Jr. led Florida A&M with 19 points, grabbing 9 rebounds and contributing 2 assists. His shooting efficiency was notable, converting 7 of 9 field goal attempts and 5 of 7 free throws. Baker Jr.'s performance in the paint and at the charity stripe was crucial in securing the win for the Rattlers. His ability to dominate both ends of the court was evident, as he also secured 9 rebounds.
Jordan Chatman and Miles Ndalama provided significant support for Baker Jr. Chatman's 14 points came on a mix of field goals and three-pointers, shooting 4 of 7 from the field and 3 of 6 from beyond the arc. Ndalama, meanwhile, contributed 12 points, securing 5 rebounds and making 8 of 13 free throws. Both players demonstrated their ability to score from various spots on the court, with Chatman showcasing his range and Ndalama making the most of his opportunities at the line.
Cameron Palesse's all-around performance was a highlight for Alabama State, as he tallied 12 points, 4 assists, and a respectable shooting clip from beyond the arc. However, his 3-for-9 mark from the field and 2-for-3 showing from three-point range were somewhat offset by his struggles at the free-throw line, where he connected on just 4 of 6 attempts. Despite this, Palesse's 4 assists were a bright spot, but ultimately, his overall efficiency was not quite enough to propel the Hornets to victory.
Damarien Yates' 10 points were largely a result of his efficient shooting, as he converted 4 of 7 field goal attempts and 1 of 2 three-point attempts. However, his lack of production in other areas, including just 2 rebounds and no assists, limited his overall impact on the game. Similarly, Tyler Mason's 9 points were a respectable showing, but his 4-for-7 mark from the field and 1-for-4 showing from the free-throw line were somewhat inconsistent, and his 1 rebound and 1 assist were not particularly notable.
Notably, Jerquarius Stanback's performance significantly deviated from his season averages, particularly in rebounding, where he posted just one rebound, a stark contrast to his average of 5.4 rebounds per game. This drop-off suggests that Stanback may have been struggling to secure position in the paint, potentially due to Florida A&M's aggressive defense. On the other hand, Micah Simpson's outing was a stark departure from his norm, as he scored just seven points, a season-low, and went 2-10 from the field, a significant drop from his average of 13.5 points per game. This downturn may indicate that Simpson is experiencing a slump in his shooting form, which could impact Alabama State's offense if not addressed.
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CORRECTPredicted
Final
While the pre-game prediction was correct in terms of the margin of victory, it underestimates the extent of Florida A&M's dominance. The Rattlers outperformed their season averages in several key areas, which ultimately decided the outcome of the game.
The Rattlers' surge in efficiency from the field, a 4.4 percentage point jump from their season average, was a significant factor in their victory. Their ability to convert on a higher percentage of their shots, combined with their increased rebounding prowess, allowed them to control the tempo of the game and limit Alabama State's scoring opportunities. Additionally, the Hornets' struggles on the glass, particularly in comparison to their season average, hindered their ability to secure second-chance opportunities and ultimately contributed to their loss.
For Florida A&M, the win will likely be considered a low-major, non-conference victory, as both teams played in Quad 4. However, with an 11-15 overall record and a NET ranking of 333, Florida A&M's NCAA Tournament resume remains in a precarious position. A more significant Quad 1 or 2 win would be required to significantly bolster their chances of receiving an at-large bid. Given their NET ranking, they are unlikely to receive a seeding higher than a 16-seed if selected.
Alabama State's loss drops them further behind in the NET rankings and with a 9-19 overall record, their NCAA Tournament prospects have all but faded. A Quad 1 or 2 win would be a distant memory for this team, and their NET ranking of 314 suggests they will be relegated to the NIT or CBI if they can even secure a postseason invitation.