The Arizona State Sun Devils and the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs are set to face off on February 24 at Schollmaier Arena, in a game that holds significant implications for both teams in the Big 12 conference race. As ASU and TCU clash, the stakes are high, with TCU seeking to bolster its postseason positioning and ASU looking to keep its slim conference tournament hopes alive. The outcome of this matchup will have a direct impact on the teams' seeding and potential paths in the conference tournament, making every possession count in this tightly contested league.
With both teams navigating the challenging Big 12 landscape, the margin between victory and defeat is razor-thin. ASU, having gone 3-2 in its last five games, will look to build on its recent form, while TCU aims to continue its momentum after a 4-1 run in its last five outings. The Horned Frogs' recent success has them on the cusp of a potential NCAA Tournament bid, but a loss to ASU could jeopardize their fragile bubble standing. As these two evenly matched teams take to the court, the difference between winning and losing will likely come down to minute details, making this a compelling matchup for a national audience.
Averaging 17.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 5.8 assists per game also highlighting his crucial role in Arizona State's offense. The team's recent form has been mixed, with two wins in their last five games, including a 72-67 victory over Texas Tech on February 17, where 's 13.8 points per game average was on full display. His 6.0 rebounds per game have also been vital to the team's performance. With a record of 14-13, Arizona State will be looking to improve their 5-9 conference record.
His 45% three-point shooting not being a stat available for any of the mentioned players, the focus shifts to the overall team performance, where 's 13.4 points per game have been supported by 's 7.9 points and 5.6 rebounds per game, as well as 's 7.2 points per game. In their last game, a 68-73 loss at Baylor, the team's inability to close out games was evident, a trend they will be looking to reverse against TCU. With Maurice Odum and Massamba Diop leading the charge, Arizona State will be seeking to capitalize on their strengths and address their weaknesses in this upcoming matchup.
Averaging 14.2 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, and his 6.7 rebounds per game have been crucial in TCU's recent success. With a 17-10 overall record and 7-7 in the Big 12, TCU has shown resilience, particularly in their last five games, where they have secured wins against West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas State. His 2.0 assists per game have also been vital in setting up teammates, including , who has been consistent with 12.5 points per game and 6.4 rebounds per game.
The team's ability to close out games has been evident, with 's 2.7 assists per game often providing the decisive pass, while 's 10.3 points per game have been a significant factor in their victories. 's 5.7 assists per game have been instrumental in controlling the tempo, and his 8.4 points per game have been a welcome addition to the team's offense. With a NET ranking of 47, TCU will look to continue their strong form against Arizona State, building on their recent wins, including a 60-54 victory over West Virginia and a 95-92 win at Oklahoma State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Arizona State's Maurice Odum and TCU's Jayden Pierre will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary ball handlers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the flow of the game. Odum's ability to create for himself and others, evidenced by his 5.8 assists per game, will be tested by Pierre's defensive prowess. Conversely, Pierre's scoring ability, though not as prolific as Odum's, will challenge Odum's defensive skills.
The outcome of this matchup will have a ripple effect on the rest of the game, as both teams rely heavily on their point guards to dictate the tempo. If Odum can outmaneuver Pierre and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, Arizona State will likely have the upper hand. On the other hand, if Pierre can contain Odum and limit his scoring and playmaking abilities, TCU will be well-positioned to come out on top. The winner of this individual battle will likely be the team that emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Arizona State
73
TCU
80
Based on the provided data, the model predicts a TCU victory with a score of 80-73, giving the Horned Frogs a 70.7% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a notable difference in their overall strength. Specifically, TCU's significantly higher NET ranking of 47 compared to Arizona State's 68 indicates that the Horned Frogs have performed better against their respective schedules, which leads me to believe that they will emerge victorious in this matchup.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, the stakes are clear for both teams: TCU, clinging to a precarious spot on the NCAA Tournament bubble, needs a win to bolster its resume and improve its seeding prospects, with a Quad 2 victory potentially stabilizing its at-large bid. A loss, however, would not only diminish its chances but also threaten to drop it into a more precarious seeding position. For Arizona State, the equation is simpler: with no at-large hopes, the focus is solely on building momentum for a conference tournament run, and while a Quad 1 win would be a significant upset, it would not alter the team's postseason trajectory. Given the disparity in their situations, TCU's performance will be scrutinized closely, and a lackluster effort would raise questions about its ability to compete against superior opponents, a concern that would linger into the postseason: can TCU translate its respectable Quad 1 record into a meaningful tournament run, or will its bubble status ultimately prove a harbinger of a brief March stay?