As we dive into the heart of conference play, the margin for error grows thinner for teams on the bubble. For Georgia Southern and Arkansas State, their upcoming showdown is more than just a rivalry game - it's a chance to bolster their tournament resumes. Both teams are currently sitting outside the top 150 in NET rankings, with Arkansas State holding a slight edge at 152, while Georgia Southern lags behind at 234. However, the Eagles have been more successful in Quad 3 and 4 games, boasting a 2-2 record in Quad 3 matchups and a 9-4 mark in Quad 4 contests.
The CHD Scout prediction has Arkansas State squeaking out a narrow victory, 81-80, with a mere 1.4-point margin. This close call reflects the evenly matched nature of the two teams, with Georgia Southern's home-court advantage nearly offset by Arkansas State's slightly stronger overall record. The Red Wolves' Quad 3 record, although not impressive at 6-1, still outshines Georgia Southern's Quad 2 and 3 performances. With both teams desperately seeking quality wins to boost their tournament chances, this game takes on added significance.
CHD Scout Prediction
Arkansas State
80
Georgia Southern
81
In terms of recent form, both teams have experienced ups and downs. Georgia Southern has alternated wins and losses in their last three games, while Arkansas State is looking to build momentum after snapping a two-game skid. Unfortunately, there's no notable player momentum to speak of, leaving the outcome of this matchup largely dependent on team performance.
Given the high stakes and the narrow prediction margin, it's difficult to separate these two teams. However, considering the home-court advantage and Georgia Southern's decent record in Quad 3 games, I'm inclined to pick the Eagles to pull off a slight upset. The Vegas line has Arkansas State favored by 2.5 points, but I believe the Eagles will capitalize on their home crowd and eke out a narrow victory, perhaps by a single possession. With the over/under set at 175.5, this game promises to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. In the end, I predict Georgia Southern will win 82-80, riding their home momentum to a crucial Sun Belt victory.