Arkansas State University defeated Louisiana-Monroe University 102-94 at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, outpacing their hosts by 8 points. The Red Wolves held a 7-point advantage at halftime, with the score 56-49, and maintained their lead throughout the second half, with each team scoring 45 and 46 points, respectively. Notably, this outcome defied the teams' relative NET rankings, as Arkansas State, ranked 143rd, topped Louisiana-Monroe, ranked 356th.
The performance that defined this contest was a standout effort by one player, who posted a stat line of 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 7 assists. In contrast to their season averages of 18.5 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game, this outing represented a significant uptick in production, underscoring the exceptional nature of this individual's contribution to the Red Wolves' victory.
Joey Chammaa's performance was a key factor in Arkansas State's victory, as he scored 21 points on 4-of-7 shooting from the field and 3-of-5 from three-point range, complementing his 5 assists with no turnovers. His efficiency at the free-throw line, where he went 10-of-10, was a notable aspect of his outing.
TJ Caldwell and Christian Harmon also made significant contributions to the Red Wolves' offense. Caldwell scored 17 points, grabbing 5 rebounds and blocking a shot, while Harmon added 14 points, despite struggling from three-point range, where he made just 3 of his 9 attempts.
Krystian Lewis's 33 points led the Louisiana-Monroe offense, but his supporting cast was unable to keep pace with Arkansas State's explosive attack. Lewis's efficiency from the field and charity stripe was a bright spot, as he shot 52.6% from the floor and a perfect 10-for-10 from the free throw line. However, his 9 assists were not enough to spark a more consistent team effort.
MJ Russell's 16 points and 9 rebounds provided a solid foundation for the Warhawks' frontcourt, but he struggled from beyond the arc, connecting on just one of his six three-point attempts. Renars Sondors's 19 points were well below his team's scoring average, and he failed to make a significant impact on the glass or in terms of playmaking, as he recorded only one assist. Despite their individual efforts, none of these performances were enough to overcome Arkansas State's high-powered offense.
Aly Tounkara's performance stood out for Arkansas State, as he more than doubled his season average in both points and rebounds, a significant jump from his typical output. His increased presence on the glass was particularly notable, as he outrebounded his season average by nearly a full board per game. In contrast, Lavell Brodnex's performance was a mixed bag for Louisiana-Monroe, as his scoring dipped below his season average despite a strong showing on the boards and in assists. Meanwhile, Micah Caster's breakout performance was a marked departure from his usual role, as he nearly quadrupled his season average in scoring while showing improved three-point shooting and a surprise block.
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Final
In the end, the pre-game prediction held true, as Arkansas State emerged victorious by 8 points, well within the projected margin of 14.5. While the final score was a bit more lopsided than anticipated, the Red Wolves' control of the game from start to finish ultimately proved decisive. Upon closer examination, it becomes clear that the Warhawks' struggles on the defensive glass and their inability to contain Arkansas State's outside shooting were the primary factors in the Red Wolves' triumph.
Louisiana-Monroe's OREB rate plummeted to 35.7% in this contest, a far cry from their season average of 22.2%. This allowed Arkansas State to maintain possession and dictate the tempo of the game, ultimately leading to a higher scoring output. Meanwhile, the Warhawks' own shooting woes were compounded by a dismal 3PT% of 40.9%, nearly 8% higher than their season average. Arkansas State, on the other hand, continued to thrive from beyond the arc, connecting at a season-best 42.4% clip. These two factors combined to create a perfect storm that Arkansas State rode to victory.
For Arkansas State, this crucial Quad 4 win bolsters their NET ranking and provides a much-needed cushion in the Sun Belt standings, but it won't significantly alter their NCAA Tournament resume. The Red Wolves remain far from a safe bet for the Big Dance, and their Quad 1 and Quad 2 records remain barren, likely condemning them to a low seed or a First Four appearance. The victory does, however, give them a sense of momentum heading into the final stretch of the regular season, and they'll need to capitalize on this momentum to improve their chances of becoming a more formidable at-large candidate. Arkansas State's NET ranking still suggests a sub-15 seed, but they've bought themselves some breathing room. They'll need to keep winning to stay relevant.