The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns, looking to build on their recent trend of averaging 71 points per game over their last 5 contests, came out strong in the first half, scoring 33 points and trailing by just 3 points at the break, 36-33. However, the Arkansas State Red Wolves, fueled by Chandler Jackson's 18 first-half points, were able to maintain their lead and eventually pull away in the second half. Arkansas State's 43 second-half points marked a significant increase from their first-half output, and their ability to score from both inside and outside the paint was too much for Louisiana to handle. The Red Wolves shot 52% from the field in the second half, including 5-10 from three-point range, with Jackson accounting for 3 of those made threes.
As the game wore on, it became clear that Arkansas State's strong team defense was going to be a major factor in the outcome. The Red Wolves held Louisiana to just 29 second-half points, including a stretch of over 5 minutes where the Ragin' Cajuns failed to score a single point. This defensive clinic was a major departure from Louisiana's recent trend of allowing 70.6 points per game over their last 5 contests. Arkansas State's ability to shut down Louisiana's offense, particularly in the second half, was a key factor in their 17-point victory. The Red Wolves also outrebounded the Ragin' Cajuns 38-28, with Jalen Hampton grabbing 12 boards to lead the team.
Chandler Jackson's 31 Points Marked His 5th 30-Point Game of the Season
Chandler Jackson's 31-point performance was the clear standout of the game, as he shot 11-18 from the field and 5-9 from three-point range. However, what doesn't show up in the stat line is the fact that Jackson hit several big shots late, including a pair of three-pointers that helped to seal the win for Arkansas State. Jaxon Olvera and Dorian Finister both scored 18 points for Louisiana, but their efforts were ultimately not enough to overcome the strong team performance from the Red Wolves. Olvera and Finister combined to shoot just 12-29 from the field, and the Ragin' Cajuns as a team shot only 38% from the field in the second half.
The CHD Scout prediction of an Arkansas State victory by 7.9 points ultimately was correct, although the actual margin of victory was significantly larger.
CHD Scout Report Card
CORRECTPredicted
Final
The key factor in the prediction's accuracy was the model's ability to account for Arkansas State's strong team defense, which has been a hallmark of their recent performances. The Red Wolves have allowed an average of just 70.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, and their ability to shut down Louisiana's offense was a major factor in the outcome. Additionally, the model correctly predicted that Chandler Jackson would have a big game, as he has been one of the top performers for Arkansas State all season. Jackson's 31 points marked his 5th 30-point game of the season, and he has now scored in double figures in 12 consecutive games.
As the season wears on, it's becoming increasingly clear that Arkansas State is a team to watch in the tournament conversation. With a current NET ranking of 146, the Red Wolves are firmly on the bubble, but their recent performances suggest that they may be poised to make a push for a higher seed. The win over Louisiana marked Arkansas State's 3rd victory in their last 5 games, and they have now outscored their opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game over that stretch. The Red Wolves have also been impressive on the road, with a 4-1 record in their last 5 away games.
The impact of this win on Arkansas State's tournament resume cannot be overstated. The Red Wolves have now improved to 17-11 on the season, and their NET ranking is likely to continue to rise in the coming weeks. The win over Louisiana marked a Quadrant 4 victory for Arkansas State, but it was still an important one, as it helped to bolster their overall record and strengthen their case for a tournament bid. For Louisiana, the loss marked a Quadrant 3 defeat, and it's likely to hurt their chances of making a push for a higher seed. The Ragin' Cajuns have now lost 2 of their last 3 games, and they must rebound quickly if they hope to make a run in the tournament. With a current NET ranking of 315, Louisiana is unlikely to make the tournament, but they can still play spoiler for other teams in the conference.
In terms of recent form, Arkansas State has been on a tear, averaging 82.6 points per game over their last 5 contests. The Red Wolves have also been strong on the defensive end, allowing just 70.4 points per game over that stretch. Louisiana, on the other hand, has been trending in the opposite direction, allowing 70.6 points per game over their last 5 contests. The Ragin' Cajuns have also struggled to score, averaging just 71 points per game over that stretch. The 17-point margin of victory marked a significant departure from the predicted 7.9-point spread, and it's clear that Arkansas State is a team to watch in the coming weeks. The Red Wolves have now outscored their opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game over their last 5 contests, and they want to continue that trend as they head into the final stretch of the season.