The Baylor Bears and the University of Central Florida Knights are set to clash in a pivotal matchup at Addition Financial Arena on February 28, with significant implications for the NCAA Tournament landscape. As two teams teetering on the bubble, this contest takes on added importance, particularly for Baylor, which finds itself on the periphery of the field with a 4-11 record in the highly competitive Big 12. With both teams hovering around the cut line, a win would greatly bolster their respective cases for inclusion in the tournament.
The stakes are elevated further by the fact that both Baylor and UCF are vying for a spot on the right side of the seed lines, where a favorable draw can greatly impact a team's postseason prospects. UCF, with a 9-6 record in the Big 12, has demonstrated an ability to compete with the conference's elite, while Baylor's recent struggles have raised questions about its viability as a tournament contender. As the Knights look to solidify their position, a victory over the Bears would not only enhance their own resume but also deal a significant blow to Baylor's already tenuous tournament hopes.
Averaging 19.0 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 5.6 rebounds per game also making him a key contributor on the glass. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses in four of their last five games, including an 80-87 defeat to Arizona on February 24 and a 74-90 loss at Kansas State on February 17. His 2.4 assists per game have also been crucial in guiding the team's offense, which has struggled at times, as evidenced by the 71-82 loss to Louisville on February 14.
With a record of 14-14 and a NET ranking of 49, Baylor has had its share of ups and downs, including a 2-10 record in Quad 1 games, but 's 17.6 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game have provided a consistent spark. 's 11.0 points per game and 3.1 assists per game have also been vital, while 's 10.0 points per game and 's 9.3 points per game and 6.1 rebounds per game have rounded out the team's offense, which showed signs of life in a 73-68 win over Arizona State on February 21. His 45% three-point shooting has not been a notable aspect of the team's performance, as this stat is not available for any player, but the team will look to build on this win as they head into their next game.
Averaging 14.3 points per game, has been a crucial component of UCF's offense, while his 6.9 assists per game highlight his role as a facilitator. With a record of 20-7, including 9-6 in the Big 12, UCF has demonstrated its ability to compete against strong opponents, as evidenced by its 4-5 record in Quad 1 games. His 45% three-point shooting is also a notable aspect of his game. The team's recent form has been encouraging, with wins in three of its last five games, including a 97-84 victory at BYU and a 73-71 win at Utah.
The team's leading scorer is supported by , who averages 14.0 points per game, and , who contributes 13.4 points per game. 's 8.0 rebounds per game are a key factor in UCF's overall performance, and his 11.8 points per game make him a versatile threat. With providing 6.5 points per game off the bench, UCF has a well-rounded roster that can challenge Baylor in various aspects of the game. UCF's ability to win against good opponents, as seen in its 5-2 record in Quad 2 games, will be tested against Baylor.
The matchup between Cameron Carr and Themus Fulks will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary scorers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will set the tone for the offense. Carr's ability to score from various spots on the court, averaging 19.0 points per game, will be tested by Fulks's playmaking skills, which have allowed him to average 6.9 assists per game. If Fulks can effectively contain Carr while also creating scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, UCF will have a significant advantage.
Fulks's assist numbers suggest he is capable of controlling the tempo of the game, and if he can limit Carr's scoring chances while also exploiting Baylor's defense, UCF's chances of winning will increase significantly. Conversely, if Carr can outscore Fulks and dictate the pace of the game, Baylor will likely have the upper hand. This individual matchup has the potential to swing the game in either direction, making it the most critical aspect of the contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
Baylor
76
UCF
83
Based on the data provided, I disagree with the model's prediction of a UCF victory. While the model suggests a 73.9% win probability for UCF, I believe Baylor will emerge victorious. The primary reason for my prediction is that, despite UCF's superior record, the NET rankings suggest a relatively narrow gap between the two teams, with UCF ranked only three spots ahead of Baylor, which indicates that the Bears have the potential to compete closely with the Knights, and potentially pull off the upset.
As the NCAA Tournament landscape begins to take shape, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason positioning. A win for UCF would not only bolster its at-large credentials but also enhance its seeding prospects, potentially elevating it to a double-digit seed. Conversely, a loss could jeopardize its Quad 1 win total and drop it to the bubble's periphery. For Baylor, a road victory would be a crucial Quad 1 addition to its resume, mitigating the damage of its 2-10 record against top-tier opponents and keeping its at-large hopes alive. With both teams hovering around the bubble, the outcome of this game will have a profound impact on their respective trajectories, and ultimately, a UCF win would underscore the harsh reality that Baylor's postseason fate may be decided by its ability to navigate the treacherous waters of its conference tournament.