As the college basketball season hits its stride, the margin for error is shrinking for teams lingering on the NCAA Tournament bubble. One such matchup that could have real consequences for both teams' postseason aspirations is the upcoming tilt between Baylor and West Virginia at the WVU Coliseum. According to the CHD Scout prediction, West Virginia is favored to win by 6.4 points, with a 72.3% chance of emerging victorious. This prediction is largely driven by West Virginia's strong performance at home, where they have been able to capitalize on their energetic crowd and familiarity with the venue.
For West Virginia, a win would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, particularly given that this matchup is classified as a Quad 2 opportunity for the Mountaineers. Currently sitting at 67 in the NET rankings, West Virginia needs to capitalize on these types of games to bolster their case for an at-large bid. Their recent form has been a mixed bag, with a loss, a win, and another win in their last three outings. However, the Mountaineers have been perfect against Quad 4 opponents and boast a respectable record against Quad 3 foes, which suggests they know how to take care of business against lesser opponents.
CHD Scout Prediction
Baylor
72
West Virginia
78
On the other side, Baylor is desperately seeking to snap a three-game losing streak and revive their own tournament hopes. The Bears, with a NET ranking of 59, have struggled in Quad 1 matchups, going 2-6, and could really use a marquee win to offset some of those losses. This game, classified as a Quad 1 opportunity for Baylor, presents a chance for the Bears to pick up a much-needed victory against a quality opponent. However, with no player momentum data to suggest any Bears are particularly hot or cold, it's unclear if they have the firepower to take down the Mountaineers on their home turf.
Given the stakes and the CHD Scout prediction, it's difficult to bet against West Virginia here. The Mountaineers' home-court advantage, combined with their desperation to bolster their tournament resume, should give them the edge they need to take down the Bears. In the end, I predict West Virginia will emerge victorious, 78-72, and take a crucial step towards solidifying their position on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. The Mountaineers' ability to feed off the energy of their home crowd and their recent success in similar matchups make them the likely victor in this high-stakes showdown.