As the college basketball season hits its midpoint, the reality check is setting in for teams on the bubble. For those lingering in the lower tiers of their conferences, every game becomes a high-stakes affair. Such is the case when two ASUN teams, both in dire need of quality wins, face off in a non-conference tilt. The hosts, Jacksonville, are slight favorites according to the CHD Scout prediction, which gives them a 60.6% chance of winning by a margin of 2.9 points.
Jacksonville, with a NET ranking of 285, has been inconsistent this season, compiling a 7-12 record with a 2-4 mark in conference play. Their quad record, however, tells a story of struggle against top-tier opponents, with a combined 0-3 record in Q1 and Q2 games. Despite this, they've shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their last three games, where they've gone W-L-W. On the other hand, their opponents, with a NET ranking of 300, have been on a downward spiral, losing their last three games. Both teams are desperate for a win to bolster their tournament resumes, but the opportunities for quality wins are dwindling.
The Vegas odds reflect the closeness of this matchup, with Jacksonville favored by 3.5 points and the over/under set at 139.5. Given the desperation of both teams, it's likely we'll see a high-scoring, intense affair. Unfortunately, neither team has a player riding a hot streak, which could lead to a more unpredictable outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Bellarmine
72
Jacksonville
75
The CHD Scout prediction suggests Jacksonville has a slight edge, and given their recent form, it's hard to argue with that assessment. While neither team has been impressive this season, Jacksonville's ability to bounce back from losses has been notable. With the home crowd behind them, they should be able to eke out a narrow victory.
In the end, I predict Jacksonville will emerge victorious, 75-72, in a game that will be marked by runs and counter-runs. Their ability to adapt and overcome adversity, combined with the slight home-court advantage, should be enough to see them past their struggling opponents. As the season wears on, these types of games will become increasingly crucial in the tournament selection process, and for now, Jacksonville will take a much-needed step in the right direction.