As the college basketball season hits its stride, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble. With Selection Sunday looming, every game takes on added significance, and tonight's matchup between Boise State and San José State is no exception. The Broncos, currently sitting at 64 in the NET rankings, are teetering on the edge of the tournament field, and a road win over the Spartans would be a huge boost to their quad record, which already boasts a respectable 2-4 mark in Quad 1 games.
San José State, on the other hand, is desperate for a quality win to bolster its own tournament resume. With a dismal 0-6 record in Quad 1 games and a 257 NET ranking, the Spartans need a miracle to get back in the conversation. A home win over Boise State would be a massive upset, but it's exactly the kind of result they need to start building momentum. The Spartans are currently mired in a three-game losing streak, and their recent form has been a far cry from the consistent performances they'll need to make a push for the postseason.
According to the CHD Scout prediction, Boise State is favored to win by 9.1 points, with San José State given just a 20.5% chance of pulling off the upset. The Broncos' recent form has been impressive, with three straight wins propelling them up the Mountain West standings. While there isn't a specific player on a hot streak for either team, Boise State's overall cohesion and depth will likely prove too much for the Spartans to handle.
CHD Scout Prediction
Boise State
78
San José State
69
With the line set at Boise State -10.5, it's clear that the bookmakers expect the Broncos to come out on top. And given their superior NET ranking and quad record, it's hard to argue with that assessment. The over/under is set at 138.5, suggesting a relatively high-scoring affair, but the real story here is the tournament implications. A win for Boise State would be a huge step towards securing a spot in the Big Dance, while a loss would send them tumbling back down the bubble.
In the end, I'm predicting a 78-69 win for Boise State. The Broncos' superior talent and recent form should prove too much for San José State to handle, and they'll likely use this game as a springboard to bigger and better things in the Mountain West. The Spartans, on the other hand, will be left to ponder what might have been, their tournament hopes all but extinguished.