The Utah State Aggies, currently riding a 5-game win streak, are set to host the Boise State Broncos, who are looking to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume with a crucial road win, having gone 3-2 over their last 5 games, averaging 84.6 points per game in that stretch. Boise State's recent form has been marked by high-scoring affairs, with their last 5 games featuring an average combined score of 166 points, including a 91-90 win at New Mexico and a 91-87 victory over Nevada. Utah State, on the other hand, has been dominating their opponents, outscoring them by an average of 12.8 points over their last 5 games, with their most recent win being a 71-66 victory over San Diego State. The Aggies have been particularly impressive on offense, averaging 86.4 points per game over their last 5, including a 99-75 thrashing of Memphis.
As we delve into the individual matchups, it's essential to examine the players who will be making a significant impact on the game.
Boise State's Recent Scoring Surge
Key Matchups
The Broncos' offense has been led by their high-scoring backcourt, which has been averaging 35.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, with a notable performance being their 89-58 win at San José State, where they scored 51 points in the first half. However, they will be facing a stiff test against the Aggies' defense, which has been allowing just 73.6 points per game over their last 5 games, including a 91-78 win over Fresno State where they held the Bulldogs to 37.5% shooting. The Aggies' defense has been particularly effective in limiting opponents' three-point shooting, allowing just 32.1% from beyond the arc over their last 5 games. On the other hand, the Broncos' defense has struggled to contain opponents' offenses, allowing an average of 81.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, including a 83-86 loss to UNLV where they gave up 45 points in the second half.
The CHD Scout prediction has Utah State winning by 14.6 points, with an 88.5% win probability, and it's easy to see why.
CHD Scout Prediction
Boise State
69
Utah State
84
The Aggies have been playing some of the best basketball in the country, with their 5-game win streak featuring wins over quality opponents like Memphis and San Diego State. Their offense has been clicking on all cylinders, with an average of 86.4 points per game over their last 5 contests, and their defense has been stifling, allowing just 73.6 points per game in that stretch. The Broncos, on the other hand, have been inconsistent, with their last 5 games featuring 3 wins and 2 losses, and their defense has been a major concern, allowing an average of 81.4 points per game over that stretch. The Aggies' ability to dominate the paint, where they have outscored their opponents by an average of 12.2 points per game over their last 5 contests, will likely be a significant factor in the game.
A win for the Aggies would further solidify their position as a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, while a loss would be a significant blow to their resume, potentially dropping them to a 5-seed or lower.
Tournament Stakes
On the other hand, a win for the Broncos would be a massive boost to their tournament hopes, potentially moving them from the bubble to a more secure position, while a loss would put them in a precarious position, potentially on the outside looking in. The Broncos' quad 1 opportunity against the Aggies is a crucial one, as a win would give them a much-needed signature victory, while a loss would leave them with a 2-5 record against quad 1 opponents. The Aggies, with their 3-1 record against quad 1 opponents, are looking to add another quality win to their resume, which would further strengthen their case for a top-4 seed. The Broncos' recent 3-2 stretch has seen them average 84.6 points per game, but they must improve their defense, which has allowed 81.4 points per game over that stretch, if they hope to pull off the upset.
The Aggies' recent dominance has been fueled by their ability to score from both inside and outside, with an average of 46.2% shooting from the field and 38.5% from three-point range over their last 5 games. The Broncos, on the other hand, have struggled with consistency, with their last 5 games featuring 3 wins and 2 losses, and their offense has been reliant on their high-scoring backcourt, which has averaged 35.4 points per game over that stretch. However, the Aggies' defense has been effective in limiting opponents' scoring, allowing just 73.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, and they want to use this to their advantage against the Broncos. The game promises to be an exciting matchup, with the Aggies' offense facing off against the Broncos' defense, and the outcome will have real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes, with the Aggies looking to extend their 5-game win streak and the Broncos seeking to pull off a major upset.