The Northern Illinois Huskies are in dire need of a quality win to boost their tournament hopes, having gone 0-3 in Quad 1 games and 0-2 in Quad 2 games, with a quad record of 0-3 Q1, 0-2 Q2, 0-5 Q3, and 6-4 Q4. Meanwhile, the Bowling Green State Falcons are looking to capitalize on their recent form, having gone 2-1 in their last three games, including a 75-68 win over the Toledo Rockets. With the Falcons favored by 6.8 points, according to the CHD Scout prediction, they want to exploit the Huskies' defensive struggles, which have seen them allow an average of 74.5 points per game.
Northern Illinois Huskies' 34.5% Three-Point Defense Could Be the Key to Upsetting Bowling Green State Falcons
The game is scheduled to take place on February 11, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET at the NIU Convocation Center, with streaming available on ESPN+. The over/under is set at 143.5 points, and the Bowling Green State Falcons are listed as -275 favorites on the moneyline.
The Bowling Green State Falcons have had a solid season, with a 14-10 overall record and a 5-6 record in the Mid-American Conference. They boast a NET ranking of 152, which puts them in a decent position to make a push for the tournament. Their quad record of 1-3 Q2, 2-5 Q3, and 8-2 Q4 indicates that they have been competitive against stronger opponents, but have also taken care of business against weaker teams. The Falcons have averaged 73.4 points per game, while allowing 69.1 points per game, resulting in a +4.3 point differential.
Key Matchups
The Northern Illinois Huskies, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency, with an 8-14 overall record and a 3-7 record in the Mid-American Conference. Their NET ranking of 298 puts them in a difficult position to make a tournament push, but they can still play spoiler and impact the conference standings. The Huskies have averaged 68.5 points per game, while allowing 74.5 points per game, resulting in a -6.0 point differential. They have gone 0-3 in Quad 1 games and 0-2 in Quad 2 games, highlighting their struggles against top-tier opponents.
The key to this matchup will be the Northern Illinois Huskies' ability to contain the Bowling Green State Falcons' balanced attack, which features four players averaging over 10 points per game. The Falcons have shot 45.6% from the field and 35.1% from three-point range, while the Huskies have struggled to defend, allowing opponents to shoot 46.3% from the field and 36.2% from three-point range. The Huskies must find a way to slow down the Falcons' offense, which has averaged 73.4 points per game, in order to have a chance to win. The pace of the game will also be crucial, as the Falcons have averaged 69.5 possessions per game, while the Huskies have averaged 67.3 possessions per game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Bowling Green
76
Northern Illinois
69
For the Bowling Green State Falcons, Justin Turner has been on a hot streak, averaging 18.5 points per game over his last five games, including a 25-point outing against the Toledo Rockets. Meanwhile, the Northern Illinois Huskies' Keshawn Williams has struggled to find his rhythm, averaging just 8.3 points per game over his last three games, after averaging 14.1 points per game in his previous five games. The Falcons' Samari Curtis has also been a key contributor, averaging 12.1 points per game and shooting 42.1% from three-point range.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Bowling Green State Falcons winning by 6.8 points, with a 27.8% win probability for the Northern Illinois Huskies. This prediction is based on the Falcons' strong offense and the Huskies' struggles on defense. The Falcons' ability to score from both inside and outside, combined with their strong rebounding margin of +3.5, makes them a formidable opponent.
This game has significant tournament implications for both teams, as a win for the Bowling Green State Falcons would boost their NET ranking and quad record, while a loss would hurt their chances of making the tournament. For the Northern Illinois Huskies, a win would be a much-needed quality victory, but a loss would all but eliminate their tournament hopes. The Huskies' quad record of 0-3 Q1, 0-2 Q2, 0-5 Q3, and 6-4 Q4 indicates that they need to start winning games against stronger opponents in order to have a chance to make the tournament.