The Valparaiso Crusaders, ranked 163rd in the NET rankings, pulled off a stunning 79-72 upset over the 112th-ranked Bradley Braves, a team that had been averaging 74.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game in that stretch. This win, a Quad 3 victory for Valparaiso and a Quad 3 loss for Bradley, has real consequences for both teams' tournament prospects. Valparaiso, who had been 3-2 in their last 5 games, averaging 71.2 points per game while allowing 74.4, seemed to have turned a corner with this victory. On the other hand, Bradley, who had won 4 of their last 5 games, including a 72-65 win over Valparaiso just 12 days ago, will have to regroup after this unexpected loss.
The game was closely contested in the first half, with both teams scoring 35 points, but Valparaiso's 44-point second half, led by JT Pettigrew's 22 points and 5 rebounds, was too much for Bradley to handle. Bradley's Alex Huibregtse had a game-high 22 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the balanced attack of Valparaiso, who had three players in double figures, including Rakim Chaney with 13 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists, and Brody Whitaker with 12 points. This loss will undoubtedly affect Bradley's seeding prospects, potentially dropping them 2-3 seed lines, while Valparaiso's win could boost their chances of making the tournament, currently sitting 5 spots out of the bubble.
Valparaiso's JT Pettigrew Scores 22 Points in Upset Win Over Bradley
Beyond the stat line, JT Pettigrew was the catalyst for Valparaiso's win, hitting several big shots in the second half to seal the victory. Rakim Chaney's all-around performance was also crucial, as he provided a spark on both ends of the floor. For Bradley, Alex Huibregtse's 22 points were impressive, but he didn't receive enough support from his teammates, particularly in the second half. Jaquan Johnson, who had 14 points, and AJ Smith, who had 10 points and 11 rebounds, were notable contributors, but it wasn't enough to overcome the deficit. Valparaiso's bench outscored Bradley's 15-8, with 12 of those points coming in the second half, a 12-point swing that proved decisive.
The CHD Scout had predicted a close game, with Bradley winning by 0.8 points, but this prediction was incorrect, as Valparaiso's strong second-half performance led to a 7-point victory.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
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The model's mistake can be attributed to underestimating Valparaiso's ability to contain Bradley's offense, particularly in the second half. Valparaiso's defense held Bradley to 37 points in the second half, 7 points below their average over the last 5 games. Additionally, the model may have overvalued Bradley's recent form, which included a 4-1 record in their last 5 games, with an average margin of victory of 6.0 points. However, Valparaiso's recent trend of averaging 71.2 points per game over their last 5 contests, while allowing 74.4, suggested that they were due for a breakout performance, which they delivered against Bradley.
This win for Valparaiso could have real consequences for their tournament prospects, as they look to build momentum with 18 days left in the regular season. With this Quad 3 win, Valparaiso improved their record to 15-13, and while they still have work to do, this victory will undoubtedly boost their confidence and give them hope for a potential tournament berth. On the other hand, Bradley's loss will be a setback, but they still have a strong record at 18-10, and want to regroup and refocus for their remaining games. Over the last 10 games, Bradley has averaged 73.5 points per game, while allowing 67.8, a 5.7-point margin that suggests they are still a formidable opponent.
This win for Valparaiso could potentially move them up 5-7 spots in the NET rankings, from 163 to around 156, while Bradley's loss could drop them 2-3 seed lines, from a potential 8-seed to a 10- or 11-seed. Valparaiso's tournament picture is still uncertain, but this win has given them a glimmer of hope, and they want to build on this momentum in their remaining games. With 5 games left in the regular season, Valparaiso needs to win at least 3 of those games to have a realistic chance at making the tournament, while Bradley needs to regroup and win at least 2 of their remaining 4 games to solidify their tournament position. The next 18 days matters for both teams, as they look to secure their tournament futures.