The Butler Bulldogs visit the DePaul Blue Demons at Wintrust Arena on March 7, a matchup that holds significant implications for both teams in the Big East conference race. As the regular season draws to a close, Butler and DePaul find themselves in a crucial stretch, seeking to bolster their positioning for the conference tournament. With neither team in contention for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid, the focus shifts to the auto-bid available through the Big East tournament, making each remaining game a high-stakes affair.
The margin between these evenly matched teams is razor-thin, as evidenced by their recent performances. Butler has gone 2-3 in its last five games, while DePaul has posted a 4-1 mark over the same span. The Blue Demons' recent form, particularly their most recent win, suggests a surge in momentum heading into this contest. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, will look to rebound from a loss in their previous outing. As the two teams clash, the outcome will have a direct impact on their seeding and potential paths in the upcoming conference tournament, making this a pivotal matchup with lasting consequences for both Butler and DePaul.
Averaging 17.3 points per game, has been a crucial component of Butler's offense, complemented by the team's leading scorer's ability to also contribute 2.5 assists per game. With a record of 15-14, including 6-12 in the Big East, Butler is looking to bounce back from a loss to Villanova in their last outing, where they fell 73-82. His 2.2 rebounds per game are supplemented by 's 11.1 rebounds per game, making Ajayi a key figure in the team's overall performance, with his 16.0 points per game also being a significant factor.
The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with wins over Xavier and Georgetown in their last five games, but also losses to Seton Hall and UConn. 's 9.8 points per game and 4.6 rebounds per game have provided a steady presence, while Jalen Jackson's 3.8 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense, with 's 8.2 points per game also being a valuable contribution. His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable aspect of the data provided for any player, so the team will rely on the overall performance of its key players, including Finley Bizjack, Michael Ajayi, Jamie Kaiser Jr., Jalen Jackson, and Yohan Traore, to take on DePaul.
With a record of 16-13, including 8-10 in the Big East, DePaul enters this matchup having recently shown resilience on the road, as evidenced by their 62-51 win at Marquette on March 1 and a 72-71 victory at Creighton on February 25. Averaging 11.3 points per game, has been a key contributor, complemented by his 7.6 rebounds per game, while 's 3.5 assists per game have been crucial in facilitating the team's offense. His 11.0 points per game have also been a significant factor in DePaul's scoring efforts.
The team's leading scorer, , is averaging 13.6 points per game, and his 3.7 rebounds per game have been valuable in supporting the team's frontcourt. 's ability to score, with 10.6 points per game, and distribute the ball, with 2.7 assists per game, has made him a versatile asset, while 's 2.6 assists per game have helped in maintaining the team's offensive flow, alongside his 7.0 points per game. With their recent form showing a mix of close wins and losses, DePaul will look to capitalize on their home advantage against Butler.
The matchup between Michael Ajayi and NJ Benson will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Ajayi's impressive all-around skills, including his ability to score, rebound, and distribute the ball, make him a difficult opponent to contain. Benson, with his strong rebounding numbers, will need to find a way to limit Ajayi's impact on the glass and in the paint. If Benson can successfully neutralize Ajayi's scoring and rebounding, it could significantly hinder Butler's offense.
Ajayi's versatility also creates a challenge for Benson on the defensive end, as he will need to balance defending Ajayi's scoring with protecting the paint and securing rebounds. Conversely, if Ajayi can exploit Benson and dominate the paint, it could open up opportunities for his teammates and give Butler a significant advantage. The outcome of this head-to-head battle will likely have a significant impact on the overall flow of the game and ultimately decide which team emerges victorious.
CHD Scout Prediction
Butler
73
DePaul
76
Based on the model's prediction, which favors DePaul by a score of 76-73 with a 60.1% win probability, I disagree with the outcome. I believe Butler will emerge victorious, and the primary reason for this assessment is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Butler holding a substantial advantage at #80 compared to DePaul's #103. This difference in ranking suggests that Butler has performed more consistently against stronger opponents, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win on the road against DePaul.
As the season enters its final stretch, the implications of this matchup are significant for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for DePaul would not only bolster their chances of securing a higher seed in the Big East tournament, but also provide a crucial boost to their program's trajectory, which has shown promise despite a lackluster NET ranking. Conversely, a Butler victory would keep their slim hopes of a top-five seed in the conference tournament alive, potentially setting them up for a more favorable matchup in the early rounds. With both teams squarely focused on winning the conference tournament as their only path to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are high, and the loser will be forced to reevaluate their postseason aspirations, ultimately making this game a referendum on which program is truly trending upward, and which is merely treading water.