The Cincinnati Bearcats, with an 11-12 overall record and 4-7 conference mark, head into this matchup against the Kansas State Wildcats, who are 10-13 overall and 1-9 in conference play, in a game that could significantly impact both teams' tournament hopes. The Bearcats have gone 1-8 against Quad 1 opponents, but their recent form, with a win-loss-loss record in their last three games, suggests they're still in the hunt. Meanwhile, Kansas State is on a 3-game losing streak, which has dropped their NET ranking to 91, making this game a must-win to stay relevant in the tournament conversation, especially considering their 0-9 record against Quad 1 foes.
Cincinnati Bearcats Have Held 12 Opponents to Under 40% Shooting
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at Bramlage Coliseum, with tip-off at a time to be determined, and will be broadcast on a channel to be announced. Fans can also catch the action on various streaming platforms, depending on their location and subscription.
The Cincinnati Bearcats have shown resilience this season, with their 11-12 record and 69 NET ranking keeping them in the bubble conversation. Their conference record of 4-7 isn't ideal, but they've managed to go 3-3 against Quad 2 opponents, which includes their upcoming game against Kansas State, classified as a Quad 2 matchup. The Bearcats have averaged 71.5 points per game, while their defense has been stout, allowing just 68.2 points per contest. Over their last five games, they've seen an uptick in scoring, averaging 74.2 points, which could be crucial in outpacing the Wildcats.
Key Matchups
The Kansas State Wildcats, with a 10-13 record and a NET ranking of 91, are in a more precarious position regarding their tournament hopes. Their 1-9 conference record and 0-9 mark against Quad 1 opponents are significant hurdles. However, they've managed to go 4-3 against Quad 2 teams, which offers some optimism heading into their matchup with Cincinnati. Kansas State averages 73.1 points per game but has struggled defensively, allowing 74.5 points per game. Their recent form, with a 3-game losing streak, has seen them score an average of 69.3 points per game, indicating a need to reignite their offense.
This game will pit the Bearcats' strong defensive unit against the Wildcats' offense, which has been inconsistent. Cincinnati's defense has held opponents to 43.2% shooting from the field and 32.1% from three-point range, which could pose problems for Kansas State, who relies on outside shooting for 34.5% of their points. The Wildcats, however, have forced 13.5 turnovers per game, which could disrupt the Bearcats' offense that averages 13.8 turnovers per contest. The pace of the game will also be interesting, with Kansas State preferring a faster pace, averaging 71.3 possessions per game, while Cincinnati likes to slow it down, averaging 68.5 possessions per game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Cincinnati
76
Kansas State
75
For Cincinnati, guard David DeJulius has been on a tear, averaging 18.5 points over his last five games, including a 25-point outing against Tulsa. Forward Jeremiah Davenport has also been consistent, averaging 12.8 points and 5.5 rebounds per game over the same span. On the Kansas State side, guard Markquis Nowell has been the catalyst, averaging 17.3 points and 7.8 assists per game, but has seen his shooting percentages dip recently, making just 38.5% of his field goals over the last three games. Forward Keyontae Johnson has been a bright spot, averaging 15.5 points and 6.8 rebounds per game, and matters in matching up against Cincinnati's frontcourt.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction favors Cincinnati by 1.2 points, with Kansas State having a 45.9% win probability. This close margin suggests a game that could go either way, with both teams capable of pulling off the win. The prediction is based on the teams' current form and statistical trends, including their performance against similar opponents and their records in close games.
This game is classified as a Quad 2 matchup for both teams, which means a win would significantly bolster their tournament resumes. For Kansas State, a victory would not only be their first Quad 1 or 2 win in 10 attempts but also halt their current losing streak, potentially reigniting their tournament hopes. For Cincinnati, a win would improve their Quad 2 record to 4-3, keeping them firmly in the bubble conversation. Given their current NET rankings, both teams need quality wins, and this matchup presents a critical opportunity for both to enhance their postseason chances.