The University of Cincinnati Bearcats travel to Lubbock, Texas, to face the Texas Tech University Red Raiders at United Supermarkets Arena on February 24, in a matchup that carries significant implications for the Big 12 conference race. With Cincinnati sitting at 7-7 in the conference and Texas Tech at 10-4, the outcome of this game will have a notable impact on the standings, as both teams jockey for position in the competitive league. The Bearcats, currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, will look to build on their recent momentum, having won four of their last five games, including a notable victory over Kansas.
As the Red Raiders, a projected NCAA Tournament team, host the Bearcats, the small margins that separate these evenly matched teams will be put to the test. Texas Tech's strong recent form, with four wins in their last five games, will be countered by Cincinnati's resilience, making for a compelling matchup. The game's outcome will not only affect the conference standings but also influence postseason positioning, as Cincinnati seeks to bolster its tournament résumé and Texas Tech aims to solidify its spot in the NCAA Tournament field. With the model predicting a close, yet decisive, victory for the Red Raiders, this game promises to be a tightly contested affair, with the outcome hanging precariously in the balance.
Averaging 13.6 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while also contributing 10.0 rebounds and 3.2 assists per game. With his 45% field goal shooting, Baba Miller has been a key factor in Cincinnati's recent success, including their 84-68 win at Kansas on February 21. The team's overall record stands at 14-12, with a 7-7 mark in the Big 12 conference, earning them a NET ranking of 51. His performance has been complemented by , who is averaging 11.2 points and 6.1 rebounds per game.
The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 69-65 victory over Utah on February 15 and a 91-62 rout of Kansas State on February 11. has been instrumental in this stretch, averaging 11.2 points per game, while has provided 10.7 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.6 assists per game. His 3.6 assists per game have been crucial in setting up scoring opportunities for his teammates, including Shon Abaev, who is averaging 8.0 points and 3.0 rebounds per game, and Moustapha Thiam, who has been a consistent presence in the paint.
Averaging 21.8 points per game, has been the driving force behind Texas Tech's offense, complemented by , whose 7.7 assists per game have been instrumental in creating scoring opportunities. The team's recent form has been impressive, with a 100-72 win over Kansas State on February 21 and a 78-75 victory at Arizona on February 14. His 45% three-point shooting has also been a key factor in the team's success, with and providing additional scoring punch.
With a 20-7 overall record and a 10-4 mark in the Big 12, Texas Tech has established itself as a formidable opponent, having gone 7-7 against Quad 1 teams. Christian Anderson's ability to score and distribute the ball has been crucial, while JT Toppin's dominance on the glass, averaging 10.8 rebounds per game, has given the team a significant advantage. 's contributions off the bench, including 9.0 points per game, have also been valuable in Texas Tech's pursuit of a strong finish to the season, which continues with the upcoming matchup against Cincinnati.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Cincinnati's Baba Miller and Texas Tech's JT Toppin will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As two of the most dominant big men in the country, their head-to-head battle will likely dictate the tempo and rhythm of the game. Miller's ability to score, rebound, and facilitate for his teammates will be tested by Toppin's impressive all-around skills, including his scoring prowess and rebounding ability.
If Miller can contain Toppin and limit his scoring opportunities, Cincinnati may be able to gain an advantage in the paint and control the boards. Conversely, if Toppin can exploit Miller defensively and get him into foul trouble, Texas Tech may be able to establish a significant advantage in the frontcourt. The outcome of this individual matchup will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it the most critical aspect of the game to watch.
CHD Scout Prediction
Cincinnati
68
Texas Tech
79
Based on the model's prediction of Texas Tech 79-68 with an 82.7% win probability, I agree that Texas Tech will emerge victorious. The significant difference in NET rankings between the two teams, with Texas Tech at #14 and Cincinnati at #51, suggests a substantial disparity in overall team quality, which I believe will be the decisive factor in this matchup. Specifically, Texas Tech's notably higher NET ranking indicates a stronger performance against their schedule, which I expect will give them the edge they need to secure a win over Cincinnati.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations. For Cincinnati, a win on the road against a top-15 team like Texas Tech would be a substantial boost to their at-large hopes, potentially catapulting them into more serious bubble consideration. Conversely, a loss would further complicate their Quad 1 woes, putting added pressure on their remaining schedule. For Texas Tech, a victory would solidify their position as a likely top-5 seed, while a loss could introduce some uncertainty into their seeding outlook, particularly if they struggle to close out the regular season. Given the Quad 1 designation for Cincinnati and Quad 2 for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders will be looking to avoid a resume-denting loss, while the Bearcats seek a marquee win to bolster their flagging at-large case - and in a season where margins are thin, Texas Tech's ability to protect its home court will be a crucial test of its mettle.