The Texas Tech Red Raiders, currently projected as a top-4 seed in the tournament with a 6-6 Quad 1 record, are looking to bounce back from a tough loss in their last outing, having gone 1-2 in their last three games. Meanwhile, the Colorado Buffaloes, with a 0-6 Quad 1 record, desperately need quality wins to build a tournament resume, and this game represents a significant opportunity, given that a win would be a Quad 1 victory. Colorado's recent form has seen them go 2-1 in their last three games, with their most recent win coming by a margin of 12 points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Have Held Opponents to 60 or Fewer Points 10 Times This Season
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET, and will be held at the United Supermarkets Arena, with the broadcast available on ESPN2. Fans can also stream the game through the ESPN app.
The Colorado Buffaloes have had an up-and-down season, currently sitting at 14-10 overall and 4-7 in the Big 12 conference. Their NET ranking of 72 reflects their struggles against top-tier opponents, with a 0-6 record in Quad 1 games. However, they have shown resilience in lesser matchups, boasting a 7-1 record in Quad 3 games and a perfect 4-0 mark in Quad 4 contests. Colorado's offense has been led by their outside shooting, with the team averaging 36.2% from beyond the arc, which could pose a challenge to Texas Tech's defense.
Key Matchups
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have been one of the more consistent teams in the Big 12, with a 17-6 overall record and a 7-3 conference mark. Their strong defense has been the backbone of their success, allowing just 61.1 points per game, which ranks among the top 10 in the nation. Texas Tech's NET ranking of 18 is a reflection of their impressive performance against tough opponents, with a 6-6 record in Quad 1 games and a perfect 3-0 mark in Quad 2 contests. The Red Raiders are looking to capitalize on their home-court advantage, where they have gone 11-1 this season.
The matchup between Texas Tech's defense and Colorado's outside shooting will be a critical aspect of the game. Texas Tech has allowed opponents to shoot just 29.5% from three-point range, which is among the lowest in the country. Meanwhile, Colorado has relied heavily on their outside shooting, with 37.5% of their points coming from beyond the arc. The pace of the game could also play a significant role, as Texas Tech prefers a slower tempo, averaging just 66.4 possessions per game, while Colorado has been more uptempo, with an average of 71.1 possessions per contest. Texas Tech's ability to control the tempo and limit Colorado's outside shooting matters in determining the outcome.
CHD Scout Prediction
Colorado
73
Texas Tech
85
For Colorado, their leading scorer, who averages 17.4 points per game, will be a key player to watch, as he has been on a hot streak, scoring 20 or more points in three of his last five games. On the other hand, Texas Tech's defense has been stellar, with their leading defender averaging 2.1 blocks per game, which could pose a significant challenge to Colorado's offense. Texas Tech's point guard, who averages 6.5 assists per game, will also be crucial in controlling the tempo and facilitating the Red Raiders' offense.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has Texas Tech winning by a margin of 11.6 points, with an 83.5% win probability. This prediction is based on Texas Tech's strong defense and their ability to control the tempo, which could limit Colorado's outside shooting and overall scoring output. The predicted score is 85-73 in favor of Texas Tech, which reflects their significant advantage in this matchup.
A win for Texas Tech would further solidify their position as a top-4 seed in the tournament, given their already impressive Quad 1 record. On the other hand, a win for Colorado would be a significant boost to their tournament chances, as it would represent a Quad 1 victory and help improve their NET ranking. With Colorado currently on the bubble, this game is a must-win for them to stay in the conversation for an at-large bid. The outcome of this game will have real consequences for both teams' tournament resumes, especially considering the Quad 1 nature of the matchup for Colorado.