The Davidson Wildcats and Dayton Flyers are set to face off in a critical Atlantic 10 matchup, with both teams sitting at 6-5 in conference play and desperately needing a quality win to enhance their NCAA Tournament chances. The Flyers, with a 15-9 overall record and a NET ranking of 92, have struggled in Quad 1 games, going 0-5, but have fared well in Quad 2 and 3 contests, boasting a 3-0 and 4-3 record, respectively. Meanwhile, the Wildcats, with a 14-9 overall record and a NET ranking of 101, have also struggled against top-tier opponents, going 0-4 in Quad 1 games, but have excelled in Quad 3 and 4 matchups, with a 6-3 and 6-0 record, respectively.
Dayton Flyers Have Struggled in Close Games, with a 2-5 Record in Contests Decided by 5 Points or Less
The game is scheduled to take place on February 15, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, at the UD Arena, and will be broadcast on ESPN+.
The Wildcats have had an up-and-down season, with a 14-9 overall record and a 6-5 mark in A10 play. They have struggled to find consistency, with a recent form of W-L-W-L-L, and are in dire need of a signature win to boost their tournament resume. With a NET ranking of 101, the Wildcats are currently on the bubble, and a win over the Flyers would be a significant step in the right direction. The Wildcats have been led by their strong offense, which averages 74.5 points per game, with 45.6% shooting from the field and 36.2% from beyond the arc.
The Flyers, with a 15-9 overall record and a 6-5 conference mark, have also had their fair share of struggles, particularly in Quad 1 games, where they have gone 0-5. However, they have performed well in Quad 2 and 3 contests, with a 3-0 and 4-3 record, respectively. The Flyers' recent form has been concerning, with a L-W-L-L-L record in their last five games, and they want to bounce back against the Wildcats. With a NET ranking of 92, the Flyers are slightly ahead of the Wildcats in the tournament pecking order, but a loss would certainly hurt their chances. The Flyers' defense has been a strong point, allowing just 68.2 points per game, with opponents shooting 42.1% from the field and 33.5% from three-point range.
The matchup between the Wildcats and Flyers will feature two teams with distinct styles, with the Wildcats relying on their high-powered offense and the Flyers focusing on their stingy defense. The Wildcats' offense, which averages 74.5 points per game, will face a stiff test against the Flyers' defense, which has allowed just 68.2 points per game. The Flyers' offense, which averages 72.1 points per game, want to exploit the Wildcats' defense, which has allowed 71.4 points per game. In terms of pace, the Wildcats average 69.5 possessions per game, while the Flyers average 67.3 possessions per game, so expect a moderately paced contest. The CHD Scout prediction favors the Flyers, 73-71, with a 57.9% win probability, indicating a closely contested game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Davidson
71
Dayton
73
For the Wildcats, several players have been instrumental in their success, including Foster Loyer, who averages 17.1 points per game, and Sam Mennenga, who contributes 14.5 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. The Flyers, meanwhile, have been led by DaRon Holmes II, who averages 18.3 points and 8.1 rebounds per game, and Toumani Camara, who chips in with 13.4 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Unfortunately, there is no player momentum data available for this matchup, so it's difficult to determine who's hot or cold heading into the game.
The CHD Scout prediction favors the Flyers, 73-71, with a 57.9% win probability, indicating a closely contested game. This prediction is based on a variety of factors, including the teams' recent form, statistical edges, and style matchup. While the Wildcats have a potent offense, the Flyers' defense has been stout, and their ability to limit the Wildcats' scoring opportunities matters in determining the outcome.
This game has significant tournament implications for both teams, as a win would be a valuable addition to their respective resumes. For the Flyers, a win would be a Quad 2 victory, which would help bolster their NET ranking and improve their chances of securing an at-large bid. For the Wildcats, a win would be a Quad 2 victory as well, and would help them stay in the mix for an at-large bid. With both teams currently on the bubble, this game is essentially a must-win for both squads, and the winner will take a significant step forward in their pursuit of an NCAA Tournament berth.