The George Mason Patriots, ranked 89 in the NET, were expected to handle the Dayton Flyers, ranked 90, with ease, given their 21-6 record and recent form, which included a 77-73 win over St. Bonaventure, but the Flyers had other plans, stunning the Patriots 82-67 in a game that will have real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes, particularly for George Mason, who has now suffered their third loss in five games, with the other two losses coming against George Washington and Richmond, by margins of 19 and 12 points, respectively. Dayton's 82 points were a far cry from George Mason's average of 65 points per game over their last 5 games, and the Flyers' 43 points in the first half set the tone for the rest of the game, with Javon Bennett scoring 12 of his 22 points in the first 20 minutes, including 3 three-pointers, to give Dayton a 7-point lead at the break. The Patriots, who had been averaging 70 points per game over their last 5, struggled to keep pace, scoring just 36 points in the first half, with Jahari Long leading the way with 10 points, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Flyers' hot shooting, which saw them hit 52% of their field goals in the first half.
As the game wore on, it became clear that George Mason was in trouble, with Dayton pushing their lead to as many as 18 points in the second half, thanks in large part to the play of Amaël L'Etang, who scored 13 of his 21 points in the second half, including 7 points in a 10-2 run that put the game out of reach, with the Flyers outscoring the Patriots 39-31 in the second half, despite being outrebounded 32-28, with George Mason's Riley Allenspach grabbing 5 rebounds to lead the Patriots. The Patriots' recent trend of being outscored by 5.0 points per game over their last 5 games continued, with Dayton outscoring them by 15 points, a margin that could have been even larger if not for the Patriots' 12-15 shooting from the free throw line, which accounted for nearly 20% of their total points. With the loss, George Mason falls to 21-7, while Dayton improves to 18-9, a record that could be good enough to get them into the tournament conversation, particularly if they can build on this win and finish the season strong, with 5 games remaining on their schedule.
Dayton's 82 Points Were the Most Allowed by George Mason in a Loss This Season
The star performers for both teams were on full display, with Javon Bennett and Amaël L'Etang leading the way for Dayton, combining for 43 points, including 7 three-pointers, with Bennett hitting 4-7 from beyond the arc, and L'Etang grabbing 6 rebounds to go along with his 21 points. For George Mason, Jahari Long and Fatt Hill were the top performers, scoring 17 and 15 points, respectively, but it wasn't enough to overcome the Flyers' balanced attack, which saw 4 players score in double figures, including De'Shayne Montgomery, who chipped in with 10 points off the bench. The Flyers' bench outscored the Patriots' bench 23-15, with Montgomery and L'Etang combining for 15 of those points, and the Flyers' 14-28 shooting from three-point range was a key factor in the game, with the Patriots struggling to defend the perimeter, allowing the Flyers to hit 50% of their three-pointers in the first half.
The CHD Scout prediction had George Mason winning by 4 points, but that was incorrect, as the Flyers dominated from start to finish, outscoring the Patriots by 15 points, a margin that was fueled by their 52% shooting from the field, including 50% from three-point range. The prediction was based on George Mason's strong recent form, which included a 77-73 win over St. Bonaventure, but the Patriots' struggles on defense, which had allowed 70 points per game over their last 5, was their downfall, as the Flyers took advantage of their weaknesses and scored at will, particularly in the first half, when they built a 7-point lead.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
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The prediction was wrong because it failed to account for Dayton's recent trend of scoring 72.4 points per game over their last 5, which was 7.4 points more than George Mason's average of 65 points per game over their last 5. The model also missed the fact that George Mason had been struggling on defense, allowing 70 points per game over their last 5, which was 5 points more than their season average, and the Flyers took advantage of those weaknesses, scoring 82 points, including 43 in the first half, which was 7 points more than the Patriots' average of 36 points per game in the first half over their last 5. The model also failed to account for the Flyers' balanced attack, which saw 4 players score in double figures, and their strong shooting from three-point range, which was a key factor in the game.
The win for Dayton is a significant one, as it improves their record to 18-9 and gives them a much-needed boost in the tournament conversation, particularly with 5 games remaining on their schedule. The Flyers' recent trend of being outscored by 9.8 points per game over their last 5 games is a concern, but this win could be the start of a turnaround, particularly if they can build on this momentum and finish the season strong. George Mason, on the other hand, falls to 21-7, but their recent form is a concern, with 3 losses in their last 5 games, and they must regroup and refocus if they want to make a deep run in the tournament. The Patriots' 2-3 record over their last 5 games is a far cry from their 21-6 record, and they must find a way to stop the bleeding if they want to avoid a slide down the seed lines.
The impact of this win on the tournament picture is significant, with Dayton improving their NET ranking to 90 and George Mason dropping to 89, a 2-spot swing that could impact seed lines. The Flyers' win over George Mason is a Quadrant 2 win, which is a significant boost to their resume, particularly given the Patriots' recent form, which included a 77-73 win over St. Bonaventure. The loss for George Mason is a Quadrant 3 loss, which is a concern, particularly given their recent trend of being outscored by 5.0 points per game over their last 5 games. The Patriots must regroup and refocus if they want to make a deep run in the tournament, and this loss could be a wake-up call for them. For Dayton, this win is a significant one, and it could be the start of a turnaround, particularly if they can build on this momentum and finish the season strong. The Flyers' 18-9 record is good enough to get them into the tournament conversation, and this win could be the catalyst for a strong finish to the season.