The Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks' 83-76 victory over the Denver Pioneers was a stunning upset, considering Denver's NET ranking of 230 compared to Omaha's 255. This 7-point margin of victory was a significant departure from the CHD Scout's predicted 0.8-point margin, and it has major implications for both teams' seed lines. Omaha's win was fueled by a dominant first half, in which they outscored Denver 49-38, including a 12-0 run in the first 10 minutes of the game. This run was capped off by a Lance Waddles three-pointer with 10:15 remaining in the half, giving Omaha a 24-12 lead. Denver struggled to find their footing, shooting just 3-for-14 from three in the first half, and Omaha took full advantage, shooting 7-for-12 from deep in the same period.
As the game wore on, Denver began to find their rhythm, with Logan Kinsey scoring 12 of his 22 points in the second half. However, Omaha's lead was too great to overcome, and they were able to hold on for the win. Omaha's recent form has been impressive, with an average of 83.8 points per game over their last 5 contests, and this win marks their 4th in their last 6 games. Denver, on the other hand, had been on a roll, with a 4-1 record in their last 5 games, and an average of 81.2 points per game in that stretch. This loss is a significant setback for the Pioneers, who had been trending upwards in recent weeks. With 14 minutes remaining in the game, Omaha held a 62-51 lead, and it seemed like the game was all but over. However, Denver went on a 10-2 run over the next 4 minutes, cutting the lead to 64-61. Omaha responded with a 7-0 run of their own, capped off by a Paul Djobet layup with 6:15 remaining, and they were able to hold on for the win.
Omaha's 49-38 First-Half Lead Proved Insurmountable for Denver
Lance Waddles was the star of the show for Omaha, scoring 21 points and hitting several big shots throughout the game. He was joined by Paul Djobet, who added 16 points, and Ja'Sean Glover, who chipped in with 12 points. For Denver, Logan Kinsey was the top performer, scoring 22 points and grabbing 6 rebounds. Jeremiah Burke added 18 points and 5 rebounds, while Carson Johnson scored 17 points. However, despite these strong individual performances, Denver was unable to overcome their poor shooting from three, which ultimately cost them the game. With 2:15 remaining, Omaha held a 78-71 lead, and it seemed like the game was all but over. However, Denver refused to give up, and they went on a 5-0 run over the next 1:30, cutting the lead to 78-76. Omaha responded with a pair of free throws from Lance Waddles, and they were able to hold on for the win.
The CHD Scout's prediction of an Omaha victory by 0.8 points was correct, and it's clear that the model accurately accounted for Omaha's recent form and Denver's struggles on the road.
CHD Scout Report Card
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The model's prediction was likely influenced by Omaha's strong recent form, as well as Denver's tendency to struggle on the road. Over their last 5 games, Denver has allowed an average of 71.2 points per game, and they have been outscored by an average of 10.0 points per game in their last 5 contests away from home. Omaha, on the other hand, has been strong at home, with an average of 83.8 points per game over their last 5 contests. The model likely took these trends into account when making its prediction, and it ultimately was correct. With 5 minutes remaining in the game, Omaha held a 73-66 lead, and it seemed like the game was all but over. However, Denver refused to give up, and they went on a 10-5 run over the next 2:30, cutting the lead to 78-76.
As for the tournament implications of this game, it's clear that Omaha's win has significantly improved their chances of making the tournament.
With this win, Omaha moves to 14-14 on the season, and they have now won 4 of their last 6 games. This victory, combined with their recent form, has likely moved them onto the bubble, and they will be a team to watch in the coming weeks. Denver, on the other hand, has likely fallen off the bubble with this loss, and they must string together several wins in a row if they hope to make the tournament. With 1:30 remaining in the game, Omaha held a 78-71 lead, and it seemed like the game was all but over. However, Denver refused to give up, and they went on a 5-0 run over the next 1:00, cutting the lead to 78-76. Omaha responded with a pair of free throws from Lance Waddles, and they were able to hold on for the win. This game was a significant upset, and it has major implications for both teams' seed lines. Omaha's win has likely moved them onto the bubble, while Denver's loss has likely fallen off the bubble. As the season winds down, both teams want to make a push for the tournament, and this game will be a significant factor in their chances.
The final 10 minutes of the game were a back-and-forth affair, with both teams trading baskets and neither able to gain a significant advantage. However, Omaha's lead was too great to overcome, and they were able to hold on for the win. With 4:15 remaining in the game, Omaha held a 73-66 lead, and it seemed like the game was all but over. However, Denver went on a 10-5 run over the next 2:30, cutting the lead to 78-76. Omaha responded with a pair of free throws from Lance Waddles, and they were able to hold on for the win. This game was a significant upset, and it has major implications for both teams' seed lines. Omaha's win has likely moved them onto the bubble, while Denver's loss has likely fallen off the bubble. As the season winds down, both teams want to make a push for the tournament, and this game will be a significant factor in their chances. In the end, Omaha's strong first half and clutch free throw shooting late were the difference-makers in this game, and they were able to hold on for the 83-76 win.