The Drake Bulldogs will face off against the Belmont Bruins on March 6 at the Enterprise Center, a neutral site that will host the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. This matchup pits two teams with vastly different trajectories, as Drake, now referred to as the Bulldogs, looks to pull off a significant upset against a Belmont team, hereafter referred to as the Bruins, that has its sights set on a potential NCAA Tournament bid. The Bulldogs' only path to the tournament is by winning the conference tournament, making each game a must-win if they hope to extend their season.
As the Bulldogs prepare to take on the heavily favored Bruins, they will need to draw upon their strengths, particularly on the defensive end, to have any chance of keeping the game competitive. Meanwhile, the Bruins, despite being the clear favorite, still have much to prove, particularly in terms of their ability to perform under pressure and against teams that may employ unconventional strategies to try and slow them down. A Bruins win would be expected, but an upset by the Bulldogs would require a nearly flawless performance and some timely breaks, making for an intriguing matchup despite the disparity in the teams' records.
Averaging 20.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his performance being a significant factor in Drake's overall record of 13-19. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, as evidenced by their last five games, which include a win against Southern Illinois, but also losses to Northern Iowa, Valparaiso, and again to Southern Illinois. His 4.0 rebounds per game and 2.8 assists per game have also been crucial to the team's efforts. With contributing 9.2 points per game and 3.1 rebounds per game, the team has had some semblance of balance in their offense.
The team's offense has also been bolstered by 's 8.9 points per game and 4.3 rebounds per game, as well as 's 8.7 points per game and 4.9 rebounds per game. 's 8.7 points per game have also been a significant contribution to the team's scoring efforts. His 2.0 rebounds per game may not be as high as some of his teammates, but Jaehshon Thomas's scoring ability has been a valuable asset to the team. As Drake heads into their game against Belmont, they will be looking to build on their recent win and improve their record, with Jalen Quinn, Owen Larson, Eli Shetlar, Okku Federiko, and Jaehshon Thomas all playing important roles in the team's success.
Averaging 16.0 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his ability to create shots off the dribble posing a challenge for opposing defenses. The team's overall record of 26-5, including a 16-4 mark in the MVC, has been bolstered by strong performances from , whose 5.0 rebounds per game have helped control the paint, and , who has contributed 6.0 rebounds per game. With a NET ranking of #55, Belmont has demonstrated its ability to compete against good teams, as evidenced by its 5-2 record in Quad 2 games.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in Belmont's success, and Nic McClain's 6.2 assists per game have allowed the team to maintain a high level of offensive efficiency. In recent games, Belmont has shown its ability to bounce back from losses, as seen in its 98-64 win over Evansville following a 74-81 loss at Illinois State. With providing a spark off the bench, averaging 8.8 points per game, Belmont has the depth and talent to pose a significant challenge to Drake, and the team's 11-3 record in Quad 3 games suggests it is well-equipped to handle the Bulldogs.
The matchup between Drake's Jalen Quinn and Belmont's Tyler Lundblade will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary scorers for their respective teams, their head-to-head battle will have a significant impact on the game's trajectory. Quinn's ability to score from various spots on the court, coupled with his playmaking skills, makes him a difficult matchup for Lundblade, who will be tasked with slowing him down. Lundblade's own scoring prowess, however, means that Quinn will also have to be mindful of his defensive responsibilities.
The outcome of this matchup will likely hinge on which player can assert their will and impose their game on the other. If Quinn can get going early and find his rhythm, it may be difficult for Lundblade and the Belmont defense to keep pace. Conversely, if Lundblade can use his quickness and agility to stay in front of Quinn and limit his scoring opportunities, it could force Drake to look elsewhere for offense and potentially disrupt their overall flow. The winner of this individual battle will likely have a significant advantage in terms of dictating the tempo and ultimate outcome of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Drake
68
Belmont
86
The model's prediction of a Belmont victory by a margin of 18 points, with a 92.0% win probability, is a forecast I agree with. Given the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Belmont sitting at #55 and Drake at #209, it is reasonable to expect the Bruins to emerge victorious. A specific reason for this pick is the substantial gap in the teams' overall performance, as reflected in their NET rankings, which suggests that Belmont's superior strength and depth will ultimately prove too much for Drake to overcome in this neutral-site contest.
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations. For Belmont, a win would be a Quad 4 victory, doing little to bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, but a loss could potentially damage their at-large chances, given their already limited opportunities against elite competition. With a NET ranking of 55, Belmont's seeding is still very much in flux, and a strong finish to the season is crucial to securing a favorable position in the bracket. Meanwhile, Drake's postseason hopes are squarely focused on winning their conference tournament, rendering this game more about pride and momentum than resume-building. Ultimately, Belmont's ability to avoid a damaging loss will be the key storyline, as a defeat at the hands of a sub-200 NET team like Drake would be a devastating blow to their tournament profile, and one that could leave them on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday.