The Northern Iowa Panthers, with a NET ranking of 89, are in desperate need of quality wins to build a strong tournament resume, having gone 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 3-5 in Quad 2 matchups. They have a 9-0 record in Quad 4 games, but their performance against top-tier opponents has been lacking, with their last win coming against a team ranked outside the top 100. The Drake Bulldogs, on the other hand, are struggling to find their footing, having lost 5 consecutive games, including a 75-62 defeat to the Valparaiso Crusaders, and boast a NET ranking of 192. With a Quad record of 0-1 Q1, 1-6 Q2, 4-5 Q3, and 5-3 Q4, the Bulldogs are facing an uphill battle to turn their season around.
Northern Iowa Panthers Have Held Opponents to 60 Points or Less 7 Times This Season
The game is scheduled to take place on February 15 at 8:00 PM ET at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, Iowa, and will be broadcast on ESPN+.
The Drake Bulldogs have had a tumultuous season, with a record of 12-15 overall and 6-10 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with a 5-game losing streak that has seen them score an average of just 61.8 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score 73.2 points per contest. The Bulldogs have struggled to find consistency, with their best stretch of the season coming in late December, when they won 3 consecutive games, including a 71-64 victory over the Evansville Purple Aces. However, with a NET ranking of 192 and a Quad record of 0-1 Q1, 1-6 Q2, 4-5 Q3, and 5-3 Q4, the Bulldogs are facing a steep climb to become tournament-eligible.
Key Matchups
The Northern Iowa Panthers have had a more successful season, with a record of 16-10 overall and 8-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of 3-2 in their last 5 games, including a 77-71 win over the Illinois State Redbirds. The Panthers have been strong at home, with a record of 10-3 at the McLeod Center, and have averaged 74.5 points per game, while allowing their opponents to score just 66.8 points per contest. With a NET ranking of 89 and a Quad record of 0-2 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 3-3 Q3, and 9-0 Q4, the Panthers are in a better position to make a push for the tournament, but still need to prove themselves against top-tier opponents.
The Northern Iowa Panthers' stingy defense, which has allowed just 66.8 points per game, will face off against the Drake Bulldogs' struggling offense, which has averaged just 64.5 points per game over their last 5 contests. The Panthers have been particularly strong in the paint, with a rebounding margin of +3.5, while the Bulldogs have struggled to contain their opponents' big men, with a rebounding margin of -2.1. The pace of the game will also be a key factor, with the Panthers averaging 68.5 possessions per game, while the Bulldogs have averaged just 65.2 possessions per contest. According to the CHD Scout prediction, the Northern Iowa Panthers are favored to win by 12.9 points, with an 85.9% win probability.
CHD Scout Prediction
Drake
64
Northern Iowa
77
For the Northern Iowa Panthers, guard Bowen Born has been on fire, averaging 18.5 points per game over his last 5 contests, including a 25-point performance against the Illinois State Redbirds. Forward Tytan Anderson has also been a key contributor, averaging 12.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per game over the same stretch. For the Drake Bulldogs, guard Garrett Sturtz has been the team's leading scorer, averaging 14.2 points per game, but has struggled with his shot, making just 38.5% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games. Forward Darnell Brodie has been a bright spot, averaging 10.8 points and 6.2 rebounds per contest over the same stretch.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Northern Iowa Panthers winning by 12.9 points, with a predicted score of 77-64. The Panthers have an 85.9% win probability, according to the prediction, which is based on a variety of factors, including the teams' NET rankings, Quad records, and recent form. With the Panthers' strong defense and the Bulldogs' struggling offense, it's likely that the game will be a low-scoring affair, with the Panthers' rebounding margin and pace of play being key factors in determining the outcome.
A win for the Northern Iowa Panthers would be a significant boost to their tournament resume, particularly given the Bulldogs' Quad 2 status. With a Quad record of 0-2 Q1, 3-5 Q2, 3-3 Q3, and 9-0 Q4, the Panthers need to prove themselves against top-tier opponents, and a win over the Bulldogs would be a step in the right direction. For the Drake Bulldogs, a win would be a major upset, and would significantly improve their tournament chances, given their current NET ranking of 192 and Quad record of 0-1 Q1, 1-6 Q2, 4-5 Q3, and 5-3 Q4.