The Drake Bulldogs and Southern Illinois Salukis are set to face off at the Enterprise Center on March 5, a neutral site that will host a crucial matchup in the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. With both teams vying for their conference's automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are high, and the pressure is on. Drake, despite a recent five-game skid, will look to regain their footing and make a push for the championship, while Southern Illinois, riding a strong 4-1 stretch in their last five games, aims to continue their momentum and make a deep run in the tournament.
As the favored team, Southern Illinois will need to prove they can maintain their level of play against a desperate Drake squad. The Salukis have shown flashes of brilliance, but consistency will be key in this matchup. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs will rely on their ability to disrupt their opponents' rhythm and create turnovers, which could be the key to an upset. To pull off the surprise, Drake will need to find a way to contain Southern Illinois's offense and capitalize on any mistakes made by the Salukis. With the tournament context in mind, both teams understand that their only path to the NCAA Tournament is through winning the conference championship, making every game a must-win.
Averaging 20.0 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by , who also contributes 4.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game. With his 45% three-point shooting, has been a crucial element in Drake's offense, alongside his 3.1 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game. The team's recent form, however, has been concerning, with losses in their last five games, including a 53-75 defeat against Northern Iowa and a 71-74 loss at Valparaiso. His 5.0 rebounds per game make a key factor in Drake's frontcourt.
The team's overall record of 12-19, including 6-14 in the MVC, reflects their struggles this season, with a 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and a 1-7 record in Quad 2 games. In their last meeting against Southern Illinois, scored 9 points, but it was not enough to secure a win, as the team fell 61-66. 's 8.7 points and 4.3 rebounds per game have been a consistent presence for Drake, while Owen Larson's scoring ability has been a valuable asset. With Jalen Quinn's scoring prowess and the supporting cast, Drake will look to turn their season around against Southern Illinois.
With a 16-15 overall record and 10-10 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference, Southern Illinois enters this matchup having won four of its last five games, including an 81-67 victory at Evansville and a 66-55 decision against Indiana State. The team's leading scorer, , has been instrumental in this stretch, and his 14.6 points per game average will be crucial in this contest. Averaging 9.5 points per game, has also been a key contributor, using his 7.3 rebounds per game to control the paint and create opportunities for his teammates.
His 45% three-point shooting notwithstanding, 's all-around game, which includes 10.1 points and 3.0 rebounds per game, will be important for Southern Illinois as they look to build on recent successes, such as their 59-57 win at Northern Iowa. Meanwhile, 's 9.4 points per game and 's 8.2 points per game provide additional scoring punch, with the latter's 2.5 rebounds per game also helping to bolster the team's frontcourt presence. As Southern Illinois seeks to capitalize on its recent form, these players will be essential in determining the outcome of the game against Drake.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Drake's Jalen Quinn and Southern Illinois' Quel'Ron House will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary scoring threats for their respective teams, the effectiveness of these two guards will set the tone for the offense. Quinn's ability to score from various spots on the court, averaging 20 points per game, will be tested by House's playmaking skills, which allow him to create for himself and others. If House can contain Quinn and limit his scoring opportunities, it could significantly hinder Drake's offense.
The contrast in their playing styles will be intriguing to watch, as Quinn's scoring prowess will be pitted against House's more well-rounded game. House's rebounding and assist numbers suggest he is capable of impacting the game in multiple ways, which could give Southern Illinois an edge if he can outmaneuver Quinn. Conversely, if Quinn can exploit any defensive weaknesses and get into a rhythm, it could be a long night for the Salukis. This individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall performance, making it the most critical matchup to watch in this game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Drake
67
Southern Illinois
78
The model predicts a Southern Illinois victory, 78-67, with an 81.0% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. The primary reason for my concurrence is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Southern Illinois holding a substantial advantage at #113 compared to Drake's #206. This suggests that Southern Illinois has performed more consistently against a stronger schedule, which I believe will give them the edge they need to secure a win in this neutral-site game.
Tournament Stakes
As the season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' positioning in the Missouri Valley Conference standings, with Drake and Southern Illinois jockeying for seeding in the conference tournament. A win for Southern Illinois would bolster their chances of securing a higher seed, potentially avoiding a first-round matchup against a lower-seeded team, while a loss could drop them down the standings, making their path to the conference championship more treacherous. Conversely, a Drake victory would be a crucial upset, injecting life into their fading hopes of a top-half finish, and potentially setting them up for a more favorable draw in the conference tournament. Given the NET rankings, this game is a Quad 4 contest for Southern Illinois and a Quad 2 game for Drake, a disparity that underscores the disparate program trajectories on display, and ultimately, a Southern Illinois win would be a stark reminder that, in the MVC, consistency is key, and Drake's inconsistency is a fatal flaw.