The Dayton Flyers, currently sitting at 16-9 overall, are set to host the Duquesne Dukes, who boast a 15-10 record, in a crucial non-conference matchup at UD Arena, with both teams needing quality wins to build their tournament resumes. Over their last five games, Dayton has struggled, averaging 72.4 points per game while allowing 82.2 points per game, resulting in a 2-3 record during that stretch, with their most recent loss being a 76-81 defeat at the hands of Rhode Island. In contrast, Duquesne has been on a tear, winning four of their last five games, with an average score of 78.4 points per game, outscoring their opponents by 4.0 points per game. This recent form suggests that Duquesne may have the momentum going into this matchup, having scored 78 or more points in three of their last five games, including an 88-86 win over George Washington.
Dayton's defensive struggles have been a major concern, with the team allowing 82.2 points per game over their last five games, including a 102-point outing by Saint Louis, which resulted in a 71-102 loss for the Flyers. On the other hand, Duquesne's offense has been clicking, with the team averaging 78.4 points per game over their last five games, including a 76-61 win over Rhode Island. This disparity in scoring could be a deciding factor in the game, as Dayton's defense must find a way to slow down Duquesne's potent offense, which has been led by their ability to score from beyond the arc, with an average of 8.4 three-pointers made per game over their last five games.
Duquesne's Recent Scoring Surge
The matchup between these two teams will feature several key players, including Duquesne's leading scorer, who has been on a hot streak, averaging 22.4 points per game over his last five games, including a 28-point outing against George Mason. Dayton's defense must find a way to contain this player, who has been nearly unstoppable in recent games, with a shooting percentage of 52.4% from the field over his last five games. On the other side, Dayton's leading scorer has been struggling, averaging just 14.2 points per game over his last five games, including a 12-point outing against Rhode Island. However, he has been effective from beyond the arc, with an average of 2.8 three-pointers made per game over his last five games, which could be a key factor in this matchup.
As the game approaches, it's clear that both teams are in desperate need of a win, with Dayton looking to bounce back from a two-game losing streak and Duquesne seeking to build on their recent success. The CHD Scout prediction has Dayton winning by 4.3 points, with a 64.6% win probability, which may seem surprising given Duquesne's recent form.
CHD Scout Prediction
Duquesne
74
Dayton
79
However, this prediction may be based on the fact that Dayton has been more effective at home, with a 10-3 record at UD Arena, compared to Duquesne's 5-5 record on the road. Additionally, Dayton's defense, despite struggling recently, has been more effective at home, allowing an average of 73.5 points per game, compared to 81.2 points per game on the road. This could be a key factor in the game, as Duquesne's offense must find a way to score against a potentially stingy Dayton defense.
The implications of this game are significant, with both teams needing quality wins to build their tournament resumes. A win for Dayton would be a significant boost to their resume, as it would be a Quad 2 win, while a loss would be a Quad 3 loss, which could hurt their chances of making the tournament. On the other hand, a win for Duquesne would be a significant upset, as it would be a Quad 2 win on the road, while a loss would be a Quad 3 loss, which could make it difficult for them to make a push for the tournament.
The tournament stakes are high for both teams, with a win potentially making or breaking their season. For Dayton, a win would be a much-needed boost to their resume, which has been lacking in quality wins. A loss, on the other hand, would be a significant setback, as it would be a home loss to a team with a lower NET rank. For Duquesne, a win would be a major upset, as it would be a road win against a team with a higher NET rank. A loss, while not devastating, would make it difficult for them to make a push for the tournament, as they would need to win out and get some help from other teams.
As the game approaches, it's clear that both teams are ready to put it all on the line, with the winner potentially making a significant push for the tournament. With Dayton's defense struggling and Duquesne's offense clicking, this game has the potential to be a high-scoring affair, with the winner being the team that can find a way to slow down the other's offense. Over their last 10 games, Dayton has averaged 74.1 points per game, while allowing 78.5 points per game, resulting in a 5-5 record during that stretch. In contrast, Duquesne has averaged 77.3 points per game over their last 10 games, while allowing 73.1 points per game, resulting in a 7-3 record during that stretch. This trend suggests that Duquesne may have the upper hand in this matchup, but Dayton's home-court advantage and defensive potential make this a game that could go either way. With 12 games left in the regular season, both teams are running out of time to make a push for the tournament, making this game a must-see for college basketball fans.