The Duquesne Dukes visit the Saint Louis Billikens at Chaifetz Arena on February 28, a matchup that pits two teams with differing trajectories in the Atlantic 10 conference. Duquesne, having gone 4-1 in their last five games, will look to carry momentum into this contest, despite being heavy underdogs against a Saint Louis team that has dominated the conference. With the Billikens boasting a 25-2 overall record and a 13-1 mark in A10 play, this game presents a significant challenge for the Dukes.
As the Dukes aim to pull off a major upset, they will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in the Billikens' armor, potentially exploiting areas where Saint Louis has shown weakness. Meanwhile, despite their impressive record, the Billikens still have plenty to prove, particularly in terms of their ability to maintain focus and intensity against lesser opponents. With a projected NCAA Tournament berth already in their sights, Saint Louis must avoid complacency and ensure they remain sharp heading into the postseason. For Duquesne, a win would be a significant upset, one that would require near-flawless execution and a strong performance in areas where they excel, in order to have any chance of taking down the heavily favored Billikens.
Averaging 16.8 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his 5.1 assists per game also highlighting his role as a key playmaker. With a record of 16-11, including 8-6 in the Atlantic 10 conference, Duquesne has shown inconsistency, particularly in high-level matchups, as evidenced by their 0-4 record against Quad 1 opponents. His 3.3 rebounds per game, alongside ' 4.8 rebounds per game, have been crucial in supporting the team's offense, with Jimmie Williams also contributing 15.4 points per game.
The team's recent form has been more positive, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 62-61 victory over La Salle and a 78-73 win at St. Bonaventure, where John Hugley IV's 9.3 points per game and 4.0 rebounds per game have provided a steady presence in the paint. His 1.6 assists per game have also been valuable in facilitating the team's offense, which has also been supported by ' 8.0 points per game and ' 7.8 points per game, with Jakub Necas also averaging 5.3 rebounds per game, highlighting his importance in the team's frontcourt. With these players leading the way, Duquesne will look to build on their recent momentum as they face Saint Louis.
Averaging 12.7 points per game, 's contributions have been crucial to Saint Louis's success, with his 4.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game underscoring his well-rounded skillset. The team's leading scorer is supported by , whose 12.1 points per game have been complemented by 3.2 rebounds and 1.6 assists per outing. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's strong form, as evidenced by their 88-75 win over VCU on February 20. With a 25-2 record and a 13-1 mark in the Atlantic 10, Saint Louis has established itself as a formidable force.
His 10.8 points per game make a vital component of the Saint Louis offense, and his 5.7 rebounds per game demonstrate his ability to contribute on the glass. 's 10.7 points and 5.5 rebounds per game have also been essential to the team's success, while 's 10.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game have provided a significant boost. Following a loss at Rhode Island on February 17, Saint Louis has bounced back with wins over VCU and Loyola Chicago, showcasing the team's resilience and depth, with Robbie Avila, Trey Green, Dion Brown, Amari McCottry, and Quentin Jones all playing important roles in these victories.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Duquesne's John Hugley IV and Saint Louis's Dion Brown will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Hugley, a physical presence in the paint, will look to exploit Brown's defensive skills, which have been solid but not spectacular. Brown's ability to contain Hugley will be crucial, as the Duquesne big man has the potential to dominate the game in the paint. If Brown can limit Hugley's scoring opportunities and keep him off the glass, it will force Duquesne to rely on its perimeter players, potentially disrupting their offensive rhythm.
The Hugley-Brown battle will also have a significant impact on the rebounding margin, an area where both teams have struggled at times. Brown's 5.7 rebounds per game make him a key contributor on the glass for Saint Louis, while Hugley's 4.0 rebounds per game are a significant part of Duquesne's interior presence. If Brown can outmuscle Hugley on the boards, it will give Saint Louis a significant advantage in terms of second-chance opportunities and limiting Duquesne's fast-break chances. Conversely, if Hugley can assert himself in the paint and on the glass, it will be difficult for Saint Louis to keep pace with Duquesne's offense.
CHD Scout Prediction
Duquesne
69
Saint Louis
89
Based on the provided data, I agree with the model's prediction that Saint Louis will win, and I expect the Billikens to emerge victorious. The model's numbers suggest a convincing 20-point margin of victory, with Saint Louis having a 94.4% win probability. I concur with this assessment, primarily due to the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams, with Saint Louis holding a substantial advantage at #22 compared to Duquesne's #128 ranking, indicating a notable difference in overall team strength and performance throughout the season.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds differing levels of significance for each team's postseason aspirations. For Saint Louis, a win would be a Quad 3 victory, unlikely to substantially impact their NCAA Tournament seeding, but a loss could potentially drop them a few seeds, given their relatively thin Quad 1 resume. Conversely, Duquesne's only path to the NCAA Tournament is by winning the Atlantic 10 conference tournament, and while this game is a Quad 1 opportunity for them, it is unlikely to alter their at-large prospects, which are nonexistent. With a 20.1-point spread in favor of the home team, it is clear that Saint Louis is expected to emerge victorious, and the question is not if they will win, but by how much, and whether Duquesne can keep the deficit respectable, which would be a moral victory for a team that desperately needs one, but ultimately, a loss for Duquesne will only serve as a stark reminder that their tournament hopes are slipping away with each passing game.