The Virginia Commonwealth University Rams, or VCU, will face off against the Duquesne University Dukes at PPG Paints Arena on March 13, a neutral site that will host a pivotal Atlantic 10 conference tournament matchup. With VCU heavily favored, the Rams will look to assert their dominance and bolster their case for an NCAA Tournament bid. Meanwhile, Duquesne, or the Dukes, will aim to pull off a significant upset, as their only path to the tournament is by claiming the conference's automatic bid.
As the Dukes prepare to take on the formidable Rams, they will need to capitalize on their strengths, including their ability to create scoring opportunities through their offense. While VCU is expected to dominate, they are not invincible, and the Dukes may be able to exploit vulnerabilities in the Rams' defense. For an upset to occur, Duquesne will need to deliver a nearly flawless performance, limiting turnovers and converting on a high percentage of their shots. On the other hand, VCU still has much to prove, particularly in terms of their consistency and ability to perform under pressure, as they strive to solidify their position on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
Averaging 17.2 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while also contributing 4.7 assists per game. His performance has been crucial in Duquesne's recent games, including the 67-61 win over Rhode Island, where the team's overall record improved to 18-14. With a 9-9 record in the Atlantic 10 conference, Duquesne is looking to build on its recent victories, which also include a 79-77 win over Richmond. The team's leading rebounder, , has been consistent with 5.6 rebounds per game, while also scoring 8.1 points per game.
His 45% three-point shooting has been a notable aspect of ' game, who is also scoring 14.9 points per game. The team's recent form has been marked by close wins and losses, including a 52-64 loss at Rhode Island and a 76-91 loss at Saint Louis. has been a steady contributor with 9.0 points per game, while has added 7.8 points per game to the team's offense. As Duquesne prepares to face VCU, the team will rely on the collective efforts of its key players, including Tarence Guinyard, Jimmie Williams, and David Dixon, to secure a win and improve its postseason prospects.
Averaging 13.8 points per game, has been a crucial component of VCU's offense, complemented by his 5.6 rebounds per game. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in the team's success, particularly in their recent wins. With a record of 24-7, VCU has demonstrated its strength, especially in Quadrant 3 and 4 games, where they boast an undefeated record. The team's leading scorer, , has consistently delivered, and his 2.8 assists per game have helped facilitate the team's offense.
In their last five games, VCU has shown resilience, with wins over Dayton, George Mason, and Fordham, and a loss to Saint Louis. has been a key contributor, with 10.1 points per game, while has provided 9.0 points per game, along with 3.4 rebounds. has also been a vital part of the team, with 8.5 points per game and 4.2 rebounds per game, making him a formidable opponent in the paint. As VCU faces Duquesne, these players will be essential in determining the outcome of the game, and their performance will be closely watched.
The matchup between Tarence Guinyard and Terrence Hill Jr. will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary ball handlers for their respective teams, their ability to create scoring opportunities and dictate the pace of the game will be crucial. Guinyard's exceptional passing ability, evidenced by his 4.7 assists per game, will be tested by Hill Jr.'s defensive prowess, while Hill Jr.'s scoring acumen will push Guinyard to be at his best on the defensive end.
The winner of this individual battle will likely give their team the edge they need to come out on top. If Guinyard can outmaneuver Hill Jr. and create scoring chances for himself and his teammates, Duquesne's offense could flourish. Conversely, if Hill Jr. can contain Guinyard and find ways to score against him, VCU's chances of winning will increase significantly. This head-to-head matchup has the potential to be a deciding factor in the game, and its outcome will be closely watched by both teams.
CHD Scout Prediction
Duquesne
71
VCU
83
Based on the provided data, I agree with the model's prediction that VCU will emerge victorious. The model suggests an 82.6% win probability for VCU, with a predicted score of 83-71. I concur with this assessment, and a key reason for my pick is the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams, with VCU holding a substantial advantage at #44 compared to Duquesne's #138. This difference in ranking suggests a notable gap in overall team strength, which I believe will ultimately prove too great for Duquesne to overcome, leading to a VCU win.
This matchup holds significant implications for both teams' postseason aspirations, albeit in different contexts. For VCU, a win would bolster their NCAA Tournament resume, potentially enhancing their at-large chances, while a loss could jeopardize their bubble status. As the game is a Quad 2 opportunity for VCU and a Quad 1 chance for Duquesne, the Rams must avoid a damaging defeat, which would not only hurt their overall record but also add a suboptimal Quad 2 loss. Given Duquesne's remote postseason prospects, their focus is squarely on gaining momentum for the Atlantic 10 conference tournament, where they'll need to string together several wins to claim the auto-bid. Ultimately, VCU's postseason fate will be dictated by their ability to capitalize on opportunities like this, and a loss to a sub-100 NET team like Duquesne would be a glaring misstep.