As we dive into the second half of the college basketball season, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the tournament bubble. For two OVC teams, a win on January 22 could be the difference between a legitimate shot at the big dance and a disappointing postseason. everything is lined up at Liberty Arena, where the home team is looking to capitalize on a rare opportunity to boost their resume. With a Quad 4 matchup on the docket, the importance of a victory cannot be overstated, especially considering the home team's dismal 0-1 Q1, 1-4 Q3, and 1-9 Q4 record.
The visiting team, although not in a significantly better position, boasts a slightly more respectable NET ranking of 309, compared to the home team's 335. Their recent form has been a mixed bag, with a loss, a win, and another win in their last three outings. Unfortunately, neither team has a player riding a hot streak, which could lead to a tightly contested, low-scoring affair. The CHD Scout prediction suggests a nail-biter, with the visiting team favored by 2.0 points and a narrow 57.4% win probability. The home team, however, still has a 42.6% chance of emerging victorious, making this a true toss-up.
CHD Scout Prediction
Eastern Illinois
69
Southern Ind.
69
In terms of tournament implications, both teams are in dire need of quality wins to bolster their resumes. The home team's Quad 4 record is particularly underwhelming, and a loss would all but extinguish their already faint tournament hopes. The visiting team, while not in a much better position, could use a win to build momentum and potentially sneak into the conversation for a postseason berth. With the over/under set at 133.5, it's clear that the books expect a low-scoring, grind-it-out type of game.
Given the evenly matched nature of this contest, it's difficult to predict a clear winner. However, considering the visiting team's slightly better NET ranking and recent form, I'm inclined to agree with the CHD Scout prediction. I predict the visiting team will squeak out a 71-68 win, thanks to their ability to limit the home team's scoring opportunities and capitalize on their own. The home team will certainly give it their all, but ultimately, their lack of quality wins and poor Quad record will catch up to them.