The University of Evansville Purple Aces will face off against the Belmont University Bruins on February 25 at the Curb Event Center Arena, a matchup that pits two teams with vastly different trajectories against each other. Evansville, with a 6-22 record, is looking to pull off a significant upset, while the Bruins, boasting a 25-4 record, are seeking to solidify their position on the NCAA Tournament bubble. As the regular season draws to a close, this game takes on added importance for Belmont, which needs to continue winning to bolster its postseason resume.
Despite the lopsided model prediction, Evansville has shown flashes of competitiveness, particularly in its ability to push the pace and create scoring opportunities in transition. The Aces will need to capitalize on these strengths and exploit any vulnerabilities in the Bruins' defense, which has been stout for much of the season. For Belmont, a win would help to alleviate some of the pressure associated with being on the bubble, but the Bruins still need to demonstrate their ability to perform consistently against lesser opponents. A convincing victory would go a long way in reinforcing their tournament credentials, while an upset loss would raise more questions about their legitimacy as a postseason contender.
Averaging 12.3 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while his 5.5 rebounds per game have been crucial on the glass. With a record of 6-22, including a 2-15 mark in the MVC, Evansville has struggled to find consistency, as evidenced by their recent 75-88 loss at Murray State and 46-84 defeat versus UIC. His 1.9 assists per game have also been important in facilitating the team's offense, which has often relied on Connor Turnbull's 11.9 points per game and 6.3 rebounds per game to stay competitive.
The team's recent form has been marked by a few bright spots, including an 88-80 win over Illinois State, where 's 11.0 points per game and 3.5 assists per game were key factors. has also been a steady presence, averaging 9.1 points per game and 4.7 rebounds per game, while has chipped in with 8.5 points per game and 2.3 assists per game. With their 45% three-point shooting, Evansville will look to bounce back from their recent losses, but their 0-1 record in Quad 1 games and 0-9 mark in Quad 2 games suggest a tough road ahead, particularly against stronger opponents like Belmont.
Averaging 16.0 points per game, has been a key contributor to Belmont's strong season, which has seen the team compile a 25-4 record, including a 15-3 mark in the MVC. His 2.6 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game have also been valuable in supporting the team's balanced attack. With a NET ranking of #54, Belmont has demonstrated its ability to compete against a variety of opponents, boasting a 5-1 record against Quad 2 teams and an 11-3 mark against Quad 3 teams. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in four of its last five games, including an 87-70 victory over Indiana State and an 87-70 win at Murray State.
The team's leading scorer, supported by 's 12.4 points per game, has been complemented by the all-around play of , who is averaging 11.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. His 45% three-point shooting has been a significant factor in Belmont's success, and Nic McClain's 6.2 assists per game have helped to facilitate the team's offense. With contributing 8.6 points per game, Belmont has a deep and talented roster that will look to continue its strong play against Evansville.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Evansville's Leif Moeller and Belmont's Drew Scharnowski will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Moeller, a facilitator with a well-rounded skillset, will be tasked with outmaneuvering Scharnowski, a versatile big man who can score and distribute. Scharnowski's ability to stretch the defense with his mid-range game could create space for Belmont's other scorers, while Moeller's playmaking skills will be essential in finding open teammates and exploiting any defensive weaknesses.
If Moeller can effectively contain Scharnowski and limit his scoring opportunities, it could significantly impact Belmont's overall offense. Conversely, if Scharnowski is able to capitalize on his matchup against Moeller, Belmont's offense may be able to find a rhythm and pull away. The head-to-head battle between these two players will be a crucial aspect of the game, as it has the potential to dictate the tempo and flow of the contest.
CHD Scout Prediction
Evansville
61
Belmont
86
The model's prediction of a decisive Belmont victory, with a 97.0% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the matchup. I agree that Belmont will emerge victorious, and for one key reason: the significant disparity in team quality, as reflected in their respective NET rankings. With Belmont sitting at #54 and Evansville at #303, it is likely that the Bruins' superior overall performance will be too much for the Purple Aces to overcome, leading to a comfortable home win for Belmont.
Tournament Stakes
For Belmont, a win over Evansville would be a Quad 4 victory, which, while not particularly impactful, would at least avoid a damaging loss to a lower-rated opponent, helping to preserve their NCAA Tournament at-large hopes. Given their current NET ranking of 54, Belmont's resume is bolstered by a strong Quad 2 record, but they lack a Quad 1 win, which this game cannot provide. Conversely, Evansville's postseason aspirations are solely tied to winning their conference tournament, rendering this matchup inconsequential to their NCAA Tournament chances. As the Bruins strive to solidify their bubble position, they must recognize that a loss would not only mar their record but also undermine the quality of their Quad 2 wins, making it imperative that they avoid an upset and protect their postseason standing. The margin for error is thin for Belmont, and a stumble against Evansville would be a stark reminder that even the most seemingly insignificant games can have far-reaching consequences.