As the college basketball season enters its final stretch, the margin for error is shrinking for teams on the tournament bubble. For one Missouri Valley Conference squad, a home win is not just a necessity, but a lifeline to keep their NCAA dreams alive. Northern Iowa, with a respectable 13-8 record and a NET ranking of 98, is in dire need of quality wins to bolster their resume. Their quad record, although not impressive, does show a perfect 8-0 mark in Quad 4 games, which is exactly what they'll face when they host Evansville.
The Purple Aces, sporting a 5-15 record and a NET ranking of 286, are not just looking for a morale-boosting win, but a chance to play spoiler in the conference. With a dismal 1-8 record in MVC play, Evansville is on a three-game losing skid, and their recent form suggests they'll be in for a tough night at the McLeod Center. The CHD Scout prediction has Northern Iowa as a 12.8-point favorite, with an 87.3% win probability, which is hardly surprising given the significant gap in talent and form between the two teams.
CHD Scout Prediction
Evansville
58
Northern Iowa
72
While neither team has a player riding a hot streak, the home team's overall depth and balance should give them a significant edge. Northern Iowa's ability to take care of business at home matters, as they look to avoid a Quad 4 loss that could severely damage their tournament hopes. A win would not only keep them in the mix, but also provide a much-needed confidence boost as they navigate the treacherous MVC landscape.
In the end, it's hard to envision a scenario where Evansville pulls off the upset, given their recent struggles and the significant disparity in talent. Northern Iowa should come out on top, winning by a margin of around 12-15 points. The Panthers' superior offense and defense, combined with their perfect record in Quad 4 games, make them a strong bet to take care of business at home. Expect Northern Iowa to dominate from start to finish, keeping their tournament aspirations alive and well.