The Conference USA's American Athletic Conference (AAC) landscape will be on full display as the Florida Atlantic Owls (14-12, 7-7 AAC) travel to Denton to face the North Texas Mean Green (15-12, 6-8 AAC) on February 22 at The Super Pit. This mid-week matchup holds significant implications for the teams' positioning in the conference standings, as both squads aim to secure a top-four finish and secure a spot in the AAC tournament. A victory for either team would not only bolster their chances of advancing in the conference tournament but also potentially alter the seeding for the postseason.
The proximity of the teams' NET rankings and recent performances adds an element of intrigue to this contest. Florida Atlantic, having struggled in their last five outings, looks to bounce back from a 1-4 slump, while North Texas, riding a 3-2 stretch, seeks to capitalize on their momentum. The model predicts a close contest, with the Mean Green edging out the Owls by three points. However, the margin for error is razor-thin, and the outcome is far from certain, making this matchup a must-watch for those invested in the AAC's conference tournament picture.
Florida Atlantic heads into its matchup against North Texas with a 14-12 record and a NET ranking of 118. The team has shown inconsistency in recent form, with a 2-3 record over their last five games. Averaging 18.3 points per game, has been a key contributor for the Owls, alongside , who has averaged 14.2 points per game while also providing 3.1 assists per contest. has added 12.7 points per game to the team's offense.
The team's performance has varied by opponent quality tier, with a 6-2 record in Quad 3 and Quad 4 games, and a 1-5 record in Quad 2 games. His 45% three-point shooting and 6.0 rebounds per game make Devin Vanterpool a threat on both ends of the court. 's 5.7 rebounds per game have also been a key factor for the Owls, while has contributed 7.8 points per game.
North Texas heads into this matchup with a 15-12 overall record, including a 6-8 mark in conference play. The Mean Green have been inconsistent, with a recent four-game winning streak snapped by a loss to Tulane. Averaging 71 points per game over their last five contests, North Texas has shown flashes of offense, particularly with leading the charge. His 17.0 points per game pace has been a bright spot for the team, and his ability to score from the perimeter has been crucial.
The team's supporting cast has also shown promise, with contributing 13.2 points per game, including a strong 4.6 assists per game average. has been a reliable presence in the paint, grabbing 6.2 rebounds per game. Meanwhile, has been a consistent rebounder, hauling in 4.8 boards per contest, and has provided a spark off the bench, averaging 5.7 points per game.
Key Matchups
The pivotal matchup in this contest will be between Florida Atlantic's Kanaan Carlyle and North Texas's David Terrell Jr. at the point guard position. Carlyle, who has been distributing the ball effectively for the Owls, averaging 3.1 assists per game, will face off against Terrell Jr., the Mean Green's primary playmaker, who has a commanding 4.6 assists per game. This battle for control of the tempo will be crucial, as the team that can dictate the pace and create scoring opportunities will likely hold a significant advantage. Carlyle's ability to penetrate and find open teammates will be tested by Terrell Jr.'s tenacious defense, while the North Texas point guard's ability to set up his teammates for easy baskets will be challenged by Carlyle's quick hands and anticipation.
The winner of this matchup will likely set the tone for their respective team's offense, and the team that can effectively neutralize the opposing point guard will gain a significant advantage. If Carlyle can find ways to get past Terrell Jr.'s defense and create opportunities for his teammates, Florida Atlantic may be able to maintain its high-scoring offense. Conversely, if Terrell Jr. can shut down Carlyle and force the Owls to rely on their secondary scorers, North Texas may be able to slow down the pace and limit the Owls' scoring opportunities.
CHD Scout Prediction
Florida Atlantic
71
North Texas
74
While the model's prediction of North Texas winning by three points with a 59.4% win probability is intriguing, I disagree with this assessment. The reason lies in Florida Atlantic's significantly higher NET ranking, placing them at 118 compared to North Texas's 153. This suggests that Florida Atlantic has performed better against a comparable level of competition, and I believe this disparity will ultimately give them the edge they need to secure a narrow victory.
Tournament Stakes
For Florida Atlantic, a win in this matchup would allow them to maintain a narrow lead in the AAC West division, potentially setting them up as a top seed in the conference tournament. Conversely, a loss would put them in a precarious position, potentially forcing them to rely on a favorable draw in the AAC tournament to advance. Meanwhile, North Texas can solidify their position in the AAC West division with a victory, but a loss would leave them clinging to a slim margin, making the final weekend of the regular season a must-win situation to maintain their momentum heading into the conference tournament. A North Texas win will be a massive momentum builder for the Mean Green, who are still trying to prove themselves as a legitimate AAC contender.