The Florida Atlantic Owls, currently ranked 106 in the NET rankings, are facing a critical stretch in their season, having lost their last three games, including a 75-65 defeat to the East Carolina Pirates, where they shot just 38.5% from the field and 25% from beyond the arc. With a 6-5 conference record, they are still in the hunt for a top spot in the American Athletic Conference, but a win against the Rice Owls, who boast a 4-7 conference record, is essential to get back on track. The Owls have a quad record of 0-3 Q1, 1-4 Q2, 7-2 Q3, and 4-1 Q4, indicating they have struggled against top-tier opponents.
Rice Owls' 3-Point Shooting Woes
The game is scheduled for February 11, 2026, at 7:00 PM ET, and will be held at the Tudor Fieldhouse, the home of the Rice Owls. The game will be available to stream on ESPN+, with the over/under set at 151.5 points.
The Florida Atlantic Owls have had an up-and-down season, with their 14-10 record and 6-5 conference standing reflecting their inconsistency. They have struggled to find their footing on the road, with a 4-6 away record, and have been outscored by an average of 4.5 points per game in their last three losses. Despite this, they have shown flashes of brilliance, with a 7-2 record in Quad 3 games, where they have outscored opponents by an average of 8.1 points per game. Their NET ranking of 106 is a reflection of their ability to compete against mid-tier opponents.
Key Matchups
The Rice Owls, with a 10-13 record and 4-7 conference standing, are in desperate need of quality wins to bolster their tournament resume. They have struggled to find consistency, with a 1-5 record in Quad 3 games, where they have been outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game. Their NET ranking of 241 reflects their struggles, but they have shown resilience, with a 6-4 record in Quad 4 games, where they have outscored opponents by an average of 5.5 points per game. With a 4-7 conference record, they are still searching for a signature win to turn their season around.
CHD Scout Prediction
Florida Atlantic
80
Rice
73
The Rice Owls want to exploit the Florida Atlantic Owls' struggles on the road, where they have allowed an average of 74.5 points per game. The Owls, on the other hand, will seek to capitalize on Rice's struggles in Quad 3 games, where they have been outscored by an average of 10.3 points per game. The pace of the game matters, with the Florida Atlantic Owls averaging 73.4 possessions per game, while the Rice Owls average 69.1 possessions per game. The CHD Scout prediction has the Florida Atlantic Owls winning by 6.6 points, with a 28.3% win probability for the Rice Owls.
For the Florida Atlantic Owls, Michael Forrest has been a bright spot, averaging 14.5 points per game on 42.1% shooting from beyond the arc. He has been on a tear, scoring 20+ points in three of his last five games. On the other hand, the Rice Owls will rely on Travis Evee, who has averaged 15.1 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field. He has been cold of late, scoring just 10 points in his last game against the Tulane Green Wave.
Tournament Stakes
The CHD Scout prediction has the Florida Atlantic Owls winning by 6.6 points, with a 28.3% win probability for the Rice Owls. This prediction is based on the Owls' superior NET ranking and their ability to outscore opponents by an average of 8.1 points per game in Quad 3 games. However, the Rice Owls' resilience and ability to compete against mid-tier opponents make this a potentially close game.
A win for the Florida Atlantic Owls would be a Quad 4 victory, which would help bolster their tournament resume. With a current NET ranking of 106, they are still on the bubble, but a win against the Rice Owls would give them a much-needed boost. For the Rice Owls, a win would be a significant upset, and would give them a much-needed Quad 3 victory to bolster their tournament hopes. With a current NET ranking of 241, they have a long way to go, but a win against the Florida Atlantic Owls would be a significant step in the right direction.