The Fresno State Bulldogs visit the Colorado State Rams at Moby Arena on February 24, a matchup that pits two teams with differing trajectories against each other. Fresno State, having struggled of late with a 1-4 record in their last five outings, faces a daunting task in taking down the surging Rams. Colorado State, on the other hand, rides a five-game win streak into this contest, seeking to maintain momentum as the season enters its final stretch. With both teams eyeing a potential run in the Mountain West conference tournament as their sole path to postseason play, this game holds significance for each side's chances of claiming the automatic bid.
As the Rams look to extend their winning streak, they will need to be mindful of their vulnerabilities, particularly against teams that can exploit their defensive weaknesses. Fresno State, despite their recent struggles, has shown flashes of strong play, particularly in their ability to move the ball effectively and create scoring opportunities. For the Bulldogs to pull off an upset, they will need to capitalize on these strengths while also finding ways to slow down the Rams' offense, which has been clicking on all cylinders of late. Meanwhile, Colorado State still needs to prove it can sustain its current level of performance over the long haul, and a win against Fresno State would be a crucial step in that process, helping to solidify their position in the conference standings.
Averaging 17.5 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, with his ability to put up points being a significant factor in Fresno State's offense. The team's recent form has been inconsistent, with losses in four of their last five games, including a 78-80 defeat against New Mexico and a 82-92 loss at Wyoming. His 2.5 rebounds per game and 2.2 assists per game have also been notable contributions, while has chipped in with 13.2 points per game and 5.8 rebounds per game. With a record of 12-15 overall and 6-10 in the Mountain West conference, Fresno State is looking to turn their season around.
The team's offense has also been bolstered by , who is averaging 11.9 points per game and 4.6 assists per game, making him a key playmaker for Fresno State. has been a force on the boards, with his 8.7 rebounds per game being a significant asset, while also contributing 8.5 points per game. His rebounding ability has been crucial in games where Fresno State has struggled to score, such as in their 59-69 loss at Nevada. With David Douglas Jr. adding 7.2 points per game, Fresno State will be looking to these key players to step up and lead the team to a much-needed win against Colorado State.
Averaging 11.9 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Colorado State's offense, while his 4.4 rebounds per game demonstrate his ability to make an impact on the boards. The team's recent form has been impressive, with wins in their last five games, including an 83-74 victory over San Diego State and a 91-86 win at UNLV. His 2.4 assists per game also highlight Kyle Jorgensen's role as a playmaker, and with 's 2.6 assists per game, the team has a solid foundation in terms of ball distribution.
With his 45% three-point shooting not available in the data, the focus shifts to the overall performance of Colorado State's key players, including , who is averaging 10.8 points per game, and , who is contributing 10.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. The team's leading scorer is not explicitly stated, but Brandon Rechsteiner's 11.8 points per game and Kyle Jorgensen's 11.9 points per game make them both strong candidates, and 's 4.4 assists per game demonstrate his ability to create scoring opportunities for his teammates, making him a vital component of the team's offense.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Fresno State's Zaon Collins and Colorado State's Brandon Rechsteiner will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Collins, with his team-high 4.6 assists per game, is the primary facilitator for the Bulldogs, while Rechsteiner is a key contributor for the Rams with his 11.8 points per game. If Collins can outmaneuver Rechsteiner and create scoring opportunities for his teammates, it could give Fresno State a significant advantage. On the other hand, if Rechsteiner can contain Collins and limit his ability to distribute the ball, Colorado State may be able to disrupt the Bulldogs' offense.
The head-to-head battle between Collins and Rechsteiner will be particularly important because both players have the ability to take over the game on their respective sides of the court. Collins's high assist total suggests he is adept at reading defenses and finding open teammates, while Rechsteiner's scoring average indicates he can exploit weaknesses in the opposition's defense. The team that emerges victorious in this individual matchup will likely gain a significant upper hand in the game, making this a crucial aspect to watch as the two teams take the court.
CHD Scout Prediction
Fresno State
69
Colorado State
78
Based on the model's prediction, which gives Colorado State a 78-69 victory with a 76.7% win probability, I agree that the Rams will emerge victorious. The primary reason for this pick is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Colorado State sitting at #88 compared to Fresno State's #133, indicating a notable difference in the quality of their respective schedules and performances. This gap suggests that Colorado State has been tested and proven itself against stronger opponents, which will ultimately give them the edge they need to secure a win over the Bulldogs.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Fresno State and Colorado State are focused on positioning themselves for a strong run in the Mountain West conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. A win for Colorado State would not only bolster their conference standing but also enhance their chances of securing a favorable seed in the tournament, potentially setting them up for a more manageable bracket. Conversely, a Fresno State victory would be a significant upset, allowing them to gain ground in the conference standings and build momentum heading into the tournament. With Colorado State facing a Quad 3 opponent and Fresno State facing a Quad 2 test, the Rams' superior resume, including a 5-4 mark in Quad 2 games, suggests they have the upper hand, but ultimately, the outcome will be decided on the court, and a Fresno State win would be a stark reminder that in the one-bid Mountain West, anything can happen in March.