The Wyoming Cowboys are set to host the Fresno State Bulldogs in a Mountain West showdown, with both teams looking to bolster their tournament resumes, and Fresno State is averaging 81.4 points per game over their last five, outscoring opponents by 5.2 points in that stretch, which includes a 98-96 win over UNLV and a 79-62 victory at Air Force, showcasing their ability to score in bunches, with 93 points against Air Force and 78 points against Utah State, demonstrating their offense can keep up with high-scoring teams. Wyoming, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, averaging 68.8 points per game over their last five, while allowing 77.4 points per game, resulting in a 1-4 record in that stretch, with their only win being a 68-57 victory over Colorado State. This discrepancy in scoring could be a deciding factor in the game, as Wyoming's defense will be put to the test against Fresno State's high-powered offense.
As we delve into the individual players,
Key Matchups
it's clear that Fresno State has been led by their strong offense, with multiple players contributing to their scoring efforts, including a recent hot streak where they scored 81.4 points per game over their last five, which is 12.6 points more than Wyoming's average over the same period, and this could be a problem for Wyoming's defense, which has allowed 77.4 points per game over their last five, resulting in a -8.6 point differential, the largest in their last five games. Wyoming's offense, on the other hand, has been struggling, averaging 68.8 points per game over their last five, which is 12.6 points less than Fresno State's average over the same period, and they must find a way to keep up with Fresno State's scoring, or risk falling behind early. With Fresno State's recent form, including a 93-63 win over Air Force and a 79-62 win at Air Force, they want to continue their scoring ways against Wyoming, who has allowed 79 points to Colorado State and 85 points to Utah State in their last five games.
The CHD Scout prediction has Wyoming winning by 5.2 points, with a 67.3% win probability,
CHD Scout Prediction
Fresno State
71
Wyoming
76
which may seem surprising given Fresno State's recent scoring streak, but Wyoming's home-court advantage and slightly better defense could be the deciding factors, as they have allowed 77.4 points per game over their last five, which is 0.8 points less than Fresno State's average over the same period, and Wyoming has been able to keep games close, with four of their last five games being decided by 10 points or less, including a 68-57 win over Colorado State and a 62-94 loss to Utah State. Additionally, Wyoming's recent 68-57 win over Colorado State shows that they can shut down a high-scoring offense, as Colorado State was averaging 74.2 points per game over their last five, but was held to just 57 points by Wyoming's defense. This could be a key factor in the game, as Fresno State's offense will be put to the test against Wyoming's defense.
As both teams look to build their tournament resumes,
Tournament Stakes
a win for either team would be a significant boost, as they are both currently on the bubble, with Wyoming needing quality wins to move up the rankings, and Fresno State looking to build on their recent hot streak, which includes three wins in their last five games, with the only losses being a 78-91 loss at Utah State and a 59-69 loss at Nevada. A win for Wyoming would give them a much-needed quality win, as they have struggled against top-tier teams, with a 0-6 record in Quad 1 games, and a 0-4 record in Quad 2 games, but they have been able to dominate lower-tier teams, with a 9-0 record in Quad 4 games. Fresno State, on the other hand, has a 0-6 record in Quad 1 games, and a 0-2 record in Quad 2 games, but they have been able to compete against top-tier teams, with a 93-63 win over Air Force and a 79-62 win at Air Force, showing that they can score against high-level defenses. A loss for either team would be a significant setback, as they would fall further behind in the conference standings, and would need to win out to have a chance at making the tournament, which would require them to win at least four of their last five games, a tall task for either team.