The George Washington Colonials, more commonly referred to as GW, head to the John Glaser Arena to face off against the La Salle Explorers, or La Salle, in an Atlantic 10 conference matchup. With the regular season winding down, both teams are looking to gain momentum heading into the conference tournament, their only viable path to postseason play. For GW, a win would help them build confidence and potentially improve their seeding in the upcoming tournament, while a victory for La Salle would be a significant upset and a much-needed boost to their morale.
As the favored team, GW will look to assert their dominance over La Salle, who have struggled to find consistency this season. However, La Salle has shown flashes of strong defensive play, which could potentially cause problems for GW's offense. To pull off the upset, La Salle will need to capitalize on any vulnerabilities in GW's defense and find a way to contain their opponents' scoring threats. Meanwhile, GW still needs to prove that they can perform consistently on the road and against lesser opponents, making this matchup a crucial test of their mettle. With the Explorers looking to play spoiler, this game has the potential to be more competitive than the odds might suggest.
Averaging 16.0 points per game, Rafael Castro has been the team's leading scorer, and his 8.9 rebounds per game have been crucial in George Washington's push for a strong finish to the season. With a record of 15-12, including 6-8 in the Atlantic 10 conference, the team has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly in their recent wins against George Mason and Rhode Island, where they secured 72-53 and 75-70 victories, respectively. His 45% field goal percentage has been a key factor in the team's offense, which has also been bolstered by 's 12.9 points per game.
The team's recent form has been a mixed bag, with losses to VCU, Duquesne, and Saint Joseph's in their last five games, including a tough 75-89 defeat at VCU on February 17. However, with 's 10.3 points per game and 's 9.8 points per game, the team has a solid core of scorers, and 's 9.6 points per game have provided an additional spark. As the team heads into their game against La Salle, they will be looking to Christian Jones's 3.0 assists per game to help facilitate the offense and Trey Autry's 3.6 rebounds per game to support Rafael Castro on the boards.
Averaging 11.3 points per game, Jerome Brewer Jr. has been a consistent contributor for La Salle, which enters this matchup with an 8-19 overall record and a 4-10 mark in the Atlantic 10. His 4.2 rebounds per game are also a significant factor in the team's performance. With a recent win over Rhode Island, 59-46, on February 21, La Salle will look to build on that momentum, despite having lost four of their last five games, including close defeats at Duquesne and against VCU. The team's leading scorer, , has been instrumental in their offense, and his 12.3 points per game will be crucial in this game.
His 45% three-point shooting aside, 's all-around skills, including 6.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game, make him a key player for La Salle. 's 3.2 assists per game have also been vital in facilitating the team's offense, and his 7.5 points per game provide an additional scoring threat. Meanwhile, 's 5.5 rebounds per game have been important in supporting the team's defense, and his 9.0 points per game offer another scoring option. As La Salle faces George Washington, these players will need to step up and perform well if they hope to secure a win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Rafael Castro and Rob Dockery will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Castro, a dominant force in the paint, will look to exploit his size and strength advantage over Dockery, who has been La Salle's most consistent rebounder. If Castro can assert himself in the post and on the glass, it could give George Washington a significant advantage in terms of second-chance opportunities and overall rebounding margin.
Dockery, however, is a versatile player who has shown the ability to contribute in multiple facets of the game. His 2.5 assists per game suggest he is capable of making plays for others, which could help to neutralize Castro's impact if he is able to find open teammates. If Dockery can use his quickness and agility to stay in front of Castro and limit his scoring opportunities, it could force George Washington to look elsewhere for offense and potentially disrupt their overall rhythm.
CHD Scout Prediction
George Washington
78
La Salle
69
The model predicts a George Washington victory, 78-69, with a 77.9% win probability, and I concur with this assessment. The significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with George Washington at 87 and La Salle at 230, suggests a substantial gap in overall team quality, which I believe will be the decisive factor in this game. Specifically, George Washington's considerably higher NET ranking indicates a more consistent and competitive performance throughout the season, leading me to expect them to capitalize on this advantage and secure a win over the less accomplished La Salle squad.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup holds significant implications for both teams' conference tournament positioning. A win for George Washington would bolster their standing in the Atlantic 10, potentially solidifying a top-six seed and a first-round bye in the conference tournament. Conversely, a loss could jeopardize their chances of avoiding a play-in game, making their path to the championship more arduous. For La Salle, a victory would be a crucial upset, potentially lifting them out of the bottom tier of the conference standings and providing a much-needed boost to their postseason prospects. With both teams squarely focused on winning the conference tournament as their sole means of advancing to the NCAA Tournament, the stakes are clear: the winner takes a significant step forward in their pursuit of an automatic bid, and the loser faces an increasingly steep climb. The reality is that only one of these programs will ultimately capitalize on their conference tournament opportunity, and it's unlikely to be the one that falls short on Saturday.