The Georgia State Panthers, ranked 285 in the NET, pulled off a stunning 66-64 upset over the Georgia Southern Eagles, ranked 259, in a game that will have real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes. This win marked a major turnaround for Georgia State, which had lost all 5 of its previous games, including a 55-78 thrashing at the hands of Old Dominion and a heartbreaking 74-75 loss to Northern Illinois. In contrast, Georgia Southern had been averaging 75.2 points per game over its last 5 contests, but its defense had been suspect, allowing 78 points per game. The Eagles' recent form had been inconsistent, with a 2-3 record over the same stretch, including a 101-87 win over Marshall and a 65-81 loss to App State.
The game itself was a back-and-forth affair, with Georgia State taking a 37-27 lead into halftime. However, Georgia Southern stormed back in the second half, outscoring the Panthers 37-29 to set up a thrilling finish. With 2:15 remaining, Georgia Southern's Tyren Moore hit a clutch three-pointer to tie the game at 62-62, but Malachi Brown responded with a driving layup to put Georgia State back on top. The Eagles had one final chance, but Nakavieon White's three-pointer at the buzzer rimmed out, securing the win for the Panthers. Brown finished with 19 points, while Micah Tucker added 15 and Jelani Hamilton chipped in with 13 points and 10 rebounds. For Georgia Southern, Moore led the way with 14 points and 5 rebounds, while Alden Applewhite and Nakavieon White added 11 and 10 points, respectively.
Beyond the numbers, it was clear that Brown was the difference-maker for Georgia State, hitting several big shots late to seal the win. Hamilton's rebounding was also crucial, as he grabbed 10 boards to help the Panthers control the glass. On the other hand, Georgia Southern's Applewhite vanished in the second half, scoring just 2 points after halftime. Moore's clutch three-pointer was a rare bright spot for the Eagles, but it ultimately wasn't enough to overcome the Panthers' balanced attack. Georgia State's win was all the more impressive given its recent struggles, including a 67-69 loss at South Alabama and a 63-74 defeat at the hands of Troy.
The CHD Scout prediction had Georgia Southern winning by 2.8 points, but the actual result was a 2-point win for Georgia State.
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The prediction was off because it didn't account for Georgia State's ability to shut down Georgia Southern's high-powered offense. The Panthers' defense, which had been allowing 75.4 points per game over its last 5 contests, held the Eagles to just 64 points, including a paltry 27 points in the first half. This defensive effort was a major factor in the upset, as Georgia State was able to limit Georgia Southern's scoring opportunities and capitalize on its own chances. Additionally, the prediction may have been influenced by Georgia Southern's recent trend of outscoring its opponents, but the Panthers' win shows that this trend is not always a reliable indicator of future performance.
The win was a major boost for Georgia State's tournament hopes, which had been all but extinguished after its recent losing streak. With the win, the Panthers improved to 10-18 on the season, while Georgia Southern fell to 15-13. The loss was a significant setback for the Eagles, which had been hoping to build momentum heading into the final stretch of the season. Georgia State's recent form had been poor, with an average margin of -7.8 points per game over its last 5 contests, but this win could be a turning point for the team. The Panthers had been struggling to score, averaging just 67.6 points per game over their last 5 contests, but they found a way to get it done against Georgia Southern.
The win could potentially put Georgia State back on the bubble, although its NET ranking of 285 is still a major obstacle. The Panthers' quad 4 win over Georgia Southern is a significant boost to their resume, and they want to build on this momentum in their remaining games. For Georgia Southern, the loss is a significant setback, and the Eagles must regroup quickly to avoid falling further behind in the tournament picture. The Eagles' quad 4 loss to Georgia State is a missed opportunity, and they must find a way to bounce back against tougher competition. With 10 games remaining on its schedule, Georgia State has a chance to make a push for the tournament, but it must continue to win games like this to have any hope of making the cut. The Panthers' next game is against a tough opponent, and they must be ready to put in another strong performance if they want to keep their tournament hopes alive. A win in that game could potentially move Georgia State up to a NET ranking of 270, which would put them squarely on the bubble. On the other hand, a loss could drop them to a ranking of 300, which would all but eliminate them from tournament contention. The stakes are high, and Georgia State must be ready to perform under pressure if it wants to make a push for the tournament.