In a stunning upset, Southern University emerged victorious over Grambling State University, claiming a 87-73 win at the F.G. Clark Activity Center. The margin of 14 points belies the significance of this result, as Southern, ranked 280th in the NET, outperformed Grambling, ranked 279th, in a contest that upends the seeding implications.
Southern's 48-24 halftime advantage and 39-49 second-half performance suggest a strong start and a resilient finish, as the Jaguars outscored their opponents by 24 points in the first half and ultimately secured a 14-point win.
AJ Barnes led the charge for Southern, notching 22 points on 8-of-10 shooting from the field, including a perfect 4-for-4 from beyond the arc. His efficiency was evident as he also managed to contribute with 4 rebounds and 3 assists. Barnes' ability to score from multiple levels, including from three-point range, posed a significant challenge for Grambling's defense.
DaMariee Jones provided a strong supporting effort, tallying 15 points on 6-of-8 shooting from the field. While his contribution was less flashy, Jones' reliability from the free-throw line, where he went 3-for-3, helped Southern maintain a strong margin. Terrance Dixon Jr.'s 12 points were also key, as he converted 4-of-5 attempts from the field and added a trio of blocks, contributing to Southern's defensive effort.
Antonio Munoz, the Tigers' primary scoring threat, managed a respectable 19 points on 7-14 shooting from the field. However, his inability to convert on his lone three-point attempt and make a greater impact on the glass limited his overall effectiveness. Meanwhile, Jamil Muttilib showed flashes of brilliance, draining 2 of 4 three-pointers and netting 17 points, but his supporting cast struggled to keep pace with the Jaguars' bench.
Jimel Lane, the Tigers' top rebounder, hauled in 10 boards, but his 11 points came on a relatively low volume of shots, and his inefficiency from the field (4-9) prevented him from becoming a more formidable force in the paint. Despite their individual efforts, the trio ultimately fell short in the face of Southern's well-rounded attack.
The remaining players on both teams largely adhered to their established season averages.
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Final
The pre-game prediction of a narrow Grambling victory was a resounding misfire, as Southern cruised to a 14-point win. The actual outcome was a stark contrast to the expected close contest. While the model may have been swayed by Grambling's slightly higher season average effective field goal percentage, the Tigers' performance on the night belied their predicted advantage.
Southern's dominance on the glass and from beyond the arc were the decisive factors in their victory. The Jaguars' exceptional rebounding rate, a whopping 13.0% above their season average, allowed them to control the paint and limit Grambling's second-chance opportunities. Meanwhile, their torrid three-point shooting, a 17.5% improvement over their season average, provided a significant boost to their offense and helped to stretch the Grambling defense.
The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. For Southern, a win in a Quad 4 game may not seem like a major accomplishment, but it does demonstrate the team's ability to close out games and secure victories against weaker opponents. However, Southern's NET ranking of #280 and 0-7 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents suggest that they are still a long shot for a tournament bid, likely landing in the 14-15 seed range if they were to make the field. Meanwhile, Grambling's loss in a Quad 4 game further hurts their chances, as they now sit at #279 in the NET, with a 0-3 record against Quad 1 and Quad 2 opponents, making it increasingly unlikely for them to receive a tournament bid.