The Grand Canyon Antelopes pulled off a stunning 73-63 upset over the San Diego State Aztecs at Viejas Arena, a result that sent shockwaves through the college basketball world, particularly given the 36-spot difference in NET rankings, with San Diego State sitting at 41 and Grand Canyon at 77. This 10-point margin of victory was a far cry from the predicted 6-point win for San Diego State, and it marked a significant turning point in the season for both teams. Grand Canyon's win was all the more impressive considering San Diego State's recent form, which had seen them average 74 points per game over their last 5 outings, while allowing just 59 points per game, outscoring their opponents by an average of 15 points. In fact, San Diego State had gone 4-1 in that stretch, with their only loss coming against Utah State, 66-71.
The game itself was a tale of two halves, with San Diego State taking a 33-29 lead into the break, thanks in large part to Miles Byrd's 12 first-half points. However, Grand Canyon came out firing in the second half, outscoring San Diego State 44-30, with Jaden Henley scoring 13 of his 21 points in the period. Grand Canyon's Efe Demirel also played a crucial role, grabbing 11 rebounds to go along with his 14 points, while Makaih Williams chipped in with 11 points and 7 rebounds. San Diego State, on the other hand, struggled to find their rhythm in the second half, with only Tae Simmons and Taj DeGourville managing to score more than 2 points, with 5 and 4 points respectively.
Grand Canyon's 44-30 Second-Half Surge Stuns San Diego State
Beyond the impressive stat lines, it was clear that Grand Canyon's big three of Henley, Demirel, and Williams were the difference-makers in this game. Henley's ability to score from anywhere on the court was a major problem for San Diego State, while Demirel's rebounding and defensive prowess allowed Grand Canyon to control the paint. Williams, meanwhile, provided a spark off the bench, hitting several big shots to help Grand Canyon pull away. On the other hand, San Diego State's top performers were largely absent in the second half, with Byrd scoring just 6 points after the break, and Simmons and DeGourville failing to make a significant impact.
The loss was a significant blow to San Diego State's tournament hopes, particularly given the Q3 designation of the game. San Diego State had been trending upwards, with a 4-1 record over their last 5 games, but this loss will undoubtedly drop them in the NET rankings. Grand Canyon, on the other hand, will see their NET ranking improve, and this Q1 win will be a major boon to their tournament resume.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The CHD Scout prediction of a 6-point San Diego State win was off the mark, and it's clear that the model underestimated Grand Canyon's ability to score and rebound. Grand Canyon's recent form had seen them average 80.6 points per game over their last 5 outings, and they had outscored their opponents by an average of 9.6 points in that stretch. While San Diego State had been playing well, their defense had been vulnerable at times, and Grand Canyon was able to exploit those weaknesses. The model also failed to account for Grand Canyon's ability to adapt and adjust their strategy at halftime, which ultimately was the difference-maker in the game.
The win was a major statement for Grand Canyon, who had gone 3-2 over their last 5 games, with wins over San José State, Air Force, and Boise State. This upset victory will undoubtedly give them a boost of confidence, and they want to carry this momentum forward into their next game. San Diego State, on the other hand, must regroup and refocus, as they look to bounce back from this disappointing loss. With 10 games remaining on their schedule, San Diego State still has time to make a push for a top seed, but this loss will make it much more difficult.
This win will have a significant impact on Grand Canyon's tournament picture, as it gives them a much-needed Q1 win and improves their NET ranking. While they still have work to do, this victory will undoubtedly move them up the bubble watch list, and they may even find themselves in the conversation for a top 7 seed. San Diego State, on the other hand, will see their tournament hopes take a hit, as this loss drops them to 18-8 on the season. While they are still in a good position to make the tournament, this loss will make it much more difficult for them to secure a top 4 seed. With a current NET ranking of 41, San Diego State must win at least 7 of their remaining 10 games to feel secure about their tournament chances.
In the end, this game will be remembered as a major upset, one that will have real consequences for both teams' tournament hopes. Grand Canyon's ability to adapt and adjust at halftime, combined with their impressive performances from Henley, Demirel, and Williams, ultimately was the difference-maker. As the season enters its final stretch, both teams want to use this game as a learning experience, and to make a push for a strong finish. With 10 games remaining on their schedule, San Diego State must regroup and refocus, while Grand Canyon want to carry their momentum forward and make a push for a top 7 seed. The next few weeks matters for both teams, as they look to secure their tournament futures and make a deep run in the postseason.