In a stunning upset, the University of California, Los Angeles Bruins (UCLA) took down the previously undefeated University of Illinois Fighting Illini (Illinois) 95-94 at Pauley Pavilion. The margin of victory was a single point, but the true magnitude of this upset lies in the NET rankings, where UCLA entered as the 41st-ranked team and Illinois as the 4th. This result will undoubtedly have significant implications for the NCAA Tournament seed line, as the Fighting Illini were expected to be a top seed.
The first half saw UCLA trail by three points, 50-47, before the Bruins outscored Illinois 43-36 in the second half to take the lead. UCLA's 95 points are a testament to their ability to overcome their NET ranking and take down a much higher-ranked opponent. Illinois, meanwhile, showed resilience in pushing the game to its final margin, but ultimately fell just short of the win.
Eric Dailey Jr. led the Bruins' charge, pouring in a team-high 20 points on efficient shooting. He connected on 8 of his 13 field goal attempts, including 3 of 6 from beyond the arc, and added 6 rebounds to his stat line. Dailey Jr.'s well-rounded performance was a key factor in UCLA's narrow victory.
Tyler Bilodeau and Trent Perry also made significant contributions to the Bruins' offense. Bilodeau added 18 points, shooting 6 of 11 from the field and 2 of 5 from three-point range, while Perry chipped in 17 points and dished out a team-high 4 assists. Perry's ability to score and distribute the ball effectively was a valuable asset for UCLA, particularly in the game's closing minutes.
Keaton Wagler's all-around performance, totaling 19 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists, was a highlight for Illinois, but ultimately fell short in the narrow loss. While his efficiency from the free throw line was impressive, Wagler struggled from the field, converting only 5 of 15 attempts, including 1 of 6 from beyond the arc. His 2 blocked shots were a positive, but his shooting woes limited his overall impact.
Ben Humrichous and Tomislav Ivisic also contributed to the Illinois offense, but were unable to capitalize on their opportunities. Humrichous' 5 three-pointers made him the team's top outside threat, but he also struggled to find consistency from the field, converting just 5 of 10 attempts. Ivisic's 16 points were a respectable effort, but his shooting percentages were relatively low, and he failed to make a significant impact on the glass or in the passing game.
Xavier Booker's breakout performance was a notable departure from his season average, as he nearly doubled his scoring output while maintaining a high field goal percentage. However, it was his lack of assists that stood out, a stark contrast to his usual playmaking role, which suggests that Booker's efficiency was more a product of UCLA's offense being in rhythm than a significant shift in his own game. Conversely, Donovan Dent's 15 assists far exceeded his season average, but it was the 7.8 point increase in assists that was more telling, as Dent's other stats, including field goal percentage, were below his season average, indicating a more uncharacteristic, albeit impressive, display of ball distribution.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The pre-game prediction, which favored Illinois by 11.3 points, proved to be woefully inaccurate as UCLA emerged victorious by a single point. The disparity between the predicted outcome and the actual result underscores the unpredictability of college basketball and the difficulties in accurately gauging team performance.
Upon closer examination, it becomes apparent that UCLA's elevated shooting percentages were a key factor in their upset win. The Bruins' effective field goal percentage (eFG%) surged to 59.0% from their season average of 53.3%, while their three-point shooting percentage (3PT%) jumped to 39.3% from 37.9%. Meanwhile, Illinois's own shooting percentages fell short of their season averages, with the Illini's eFG% dipping to 50.0% and their 3PT% slipping to 31.0%. Additionally, UCLA's improved rebounding efforts, though not drastically different from their season average, likely contributed to their advantage on the glass and ultimately, their win.
UCLA's victory over Illinois adds another Quad 1 loss to their resume, which now stands at 2-7, a concerning trend that may raise questions about their overall strength of schedule. However, their win over a top-5 team will undoubtedly help their NET ranking, and with a 4-2 record against Quad 2 opponents, they remain in contention for a top-4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In contrast, Illinois's loss to a Quad 1 opponent will only slightly dent their impressive resume, which boasts a 7-4 record against top-tier teams and a 5-1 record against Quad 2 opponents. Their NET ranking will likely remain in the top 5, and they are still in a strong position to secure a top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. This loss may, however, cost them a chance at a number one seed.