Bradley Brings Down Redbirds in Showdown at the Horseshoe

In a stunning upset, Bradley Braves handed the Illinois State Redbirds a 14-point defeat, 74-60, at Carver Arena. This outcome defies conventional wisdom, as the higher-ranked Redbirds (NET #91) fell to the lower-ranked Braves (NET #118). The Braves' victory has significant implications for the seeding lines in the upcoming conference tournament.

A closer look at the box score reveals that Bradley's offense was the driving force behind this upset, outscoring Illinois State in both halves. The Braves' 43-31 halftime lead set the tone for the game, and they managed to maintain a comfortable margin throughout the second half, ultimately winning 31-29 in the final frame.

Jaquan Johnson's well-rounded performance was a catalyst for Bradley's victory, as he contributed 23 points on 8-16 shooting from the field, including 1-3 from beyond the arc, and a perfect 6-6 from the free throw line. His four assists also showcased his playmaking ability, as he effectively distributed the ball to his teammates. Johnson's efficiency from the field and from the line was particularly noteworthy, as he converted at a high rate despite taking 16 shots.

Ahmet Jonovic and Timothy van der Knaap also provided key contributions for Bradley, with Jonovic chipping in 14 points on 5-7 shooting from the field and 4-7 from the free throw line, while also grabbing six rebounds and blocking one shot. Van der Knaap's 11 points were scored on 5-10 shooting from the field, although he struggled from three-point range, making just 1-6 attempts. Despite this, his six rebounds and one assist helped to round out his performance.

Mason Klabo's 12-point effort was a mixed bag, as his 7 rebounds provided a spark on the glass, but his 3-of-8 shooting from the field and 1-of-4 mark from beyond the arc left him just short of a more impactful performance. His 1 assist also paled in comparison to his usual playmaking role. While he was efficient at the free throw line, going 5-for-5, it was not enough to offset his overall shooting struggles.

Landon Wolf and Ty Pence each put up 12 and 11 points, respectively, but neither player was able to find consistent rhythm in the Illinois State offense. Wolf's 4-of-8 shooting from the field and 2-of-3 mark from three-point range was decent, but his lack of rebounding and playmaking numbers left him overshadowed by the Bradley defense. Pence's 5-of-8 shooting from the field and 1-of-1 mark from three-point range were positives, but his 0-for-1 showing from the free throw line was a missed opportunity to pad his scoring total.

The supporting casts for both teams largely adhered to their established season averages.

The pre-game prediction, which favored Illinois State by 2.4 points, was proven incorrect as Bradley emerged victorious by a 14-point margin. A closer examination of the game reveals that Bradley's surge in efficiency on offense was a decisive factor. Their effective field goal percentage (eFG%) jumped significantly to 53.4%, a marked improvement from their season average of 51.1%.

Bradley's increased efficiency on offense was complemented by a notable uptick in their three-point shooting percentage, which rose to 16.7% from their season average of 36.2%. Conversely, Illinois State's eFG% of 49.1% fell short of their season average of 53.9%, a sign of Bradley's defensive prowess. Additionally, Bradley's rebounding advantage on the offensive glass, with an OREB rate of 33.3%, allowed them to capitalize on second-chance opportunities, further contributing to their decisive victory.

The outcome of this game has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament resumes. For Bradley, a Quad 3 victory adds another notch to their belt, but the team's overall body of work remains underwhelming, with a 0-1 record against Quad 1 opponents and a NET ranking of #118. However, a Quad 3 win is a Quad 3 win, and it may just be enough to secure an at-large bid, potentially landing the Braves as a 12-seed in the tournament. Meanwhile, Illinois State's loss in a Quad 2 game is a setback, as they now have two Quad 1 losses, which could prove difficult to overcome on Selection Sunday. The Redbirds' NET ranking of #91 is still respectable, but they may need to win out in their final games to secure a spot in the tournament as a low seed. The Bruins' NCAA Tournament fate is now squarely on the line, as their season hangs precariously in the balance.