The Illinois-Chicago Flames, NET ranked 133, pulled off a stunning 27-point upset over the Illinois State Redbirds, NET ranked 83, with a final score of 83-56, leaving many to wonder how such a lopsided defeat occurred, especially given that CHD Scout had predicted Illinois State to win by 6.2 points. This outcome not only defies expectations but also raises questions about Illinois State's legitimacy as a potential tournament contender, having now lost 4 of their last 7 games, including a recent 50-54 loss to Southern Illinois. UIC, on the other hand, has been averaging 72 points per game over their last 5 games, with a 3-2 record in that stretch, including a notable 80-70 win at Drake. The Flames' 50-point second-half outburst, where they scored 50 points, will be a talking point, as it more than doubled their first-half output of 33 points.
As the game progressed, it became clear that UIC's offense was clicking on all cylinders, with 3 players scoring in double figures, including Ante Beljan, who led the team with 16 points, while Abdul Momoh and Rashund Washington Jr. added 13 points each. The Flames' 83 points were a reflection of their balanced attack, which saw them shoot 47.5% from the field, including 35.7% from three-point range, where they made 5 of 14 attempts. Illinois State, meanwhile, struggled to find their rhythm, scoring just 26 points in the first half and 30 in the second, with their top scorer, Johnny Kinziger, managing only 12 points on 5-14 shooting. The Redbirds' recent trend of averaging 74.4 points per game over their last 5 games was a far cry from their performance tonight, where they shot just 38.5% from the field and 25% from three-point range.
The stat lines don't fully capture the impact of UIC's top performers, who made key plays throughout the game. Beljan's 16 points were complemented by his 3 rebounds and 2 assists, while Momoh's 13 points and 6 rebounds were crucial in the paint. Washington Jr.'s 13 points, meanwhile, came on an efficient 5-8 shooting, including 3-5 from three-point range. On the other hand, Illinois State's top performers struggled to make an impact, with Kinziger's 12 points coming on a disappointing 5-14 shooting, while Boden Skunberg's 9 points were not enough to spark a Redbirds' comeback. The disparity in performance between the two teams' top players was a significant factor in the outcome of the game, with UIC's balanced attack proving too much for Illinois State to handle.
The question on everyone's mind is how CHD Scout's prediction could have been so off the mark. The answer lies in the Flames' ability to adapt and overcome, as they have done in recent games, including their 68-66 win at Southern Illinois and their 76-74 win over Indiana State. UIC's recent trend of outscoring opponents by 0.2 points per game over their last 5 games was a far cry from their dominant performance tonight, where they outscored Illinois State by 27 points. The Flames' ability to capitalize on Illinois State's mistakes, including 14 turnovers, was a key factor in their victory.
CHD Scout Report Card
INCORRECTPredicted
Final
The prediction model missed the mark due to its inability to account for UIC's recent improvement in form, where they have won 3 of their last 5 games, including 2 wins on the road. The Flames' 72 points per game average over their last 5 games was a significant factor in their victory, as they were able to maintain a high level of scoring throughout the game. The model also failed to consider the impact of Illinois State's recent losses, including their 50-54 loss to Southern Illinois, which may have affected their confidence and momentum. The Redbirds' 74.4 points per game average over their last 5 games was not enough to overcome UIC's balanced attack, which saw them score 83 points on 47.5% shooting.
As the game wore on, it became clear that UIC was determined to make a statement, and their 50-point second-half outburst was a reflection of their resolve. The Flames' ability to score from multiple positions, including 25 points from their bench, was a key factor in their victory. Illinois State, meanwhile, struggled to find their footing, with their 30 second-half points not enough to mount a comeback. The Redbirds' recent trend of allowing 69.4 points per game over their last 5 games was a far cry from their performance tonight, where they allowed 83 points on 47.5% shooting.
The implications of this upset are significant, particularly for Illinois State, who had been trending upwards with 3 wins in their last 5 games, including a notable 86-64 win over Valparaiso. This loss, however, may have derailed their momentum, and they must regroup and refocus if they hope to make a push for the tournament. UIC, on the other hand, has injected new life into their season, and their Q3 win over a top-100 opponent will undoubtedly boost their resume. With 5 games remaining in the regular season, the Flames want to build on this momentum and make a push for a higher seed in the conference tournament.
This win has real consequences for UIC's tournament picture, as it boosts their NET ranking and quad record. The Flames' Q3 win over Illinois State is a notable addition to their resume, and they want to build on this momentum in their remaining games. Illinois State, meanwhile, must regroup and refocus if they hope to make a push for the tournament. The Redbirds' Q2 loss to UIC is a setback, but they still have a strong resume, with 3 wins over top-100 opponents. The question now is whether they can bounce back from this loss and maintain their position in the tournament conversation. With the graphic showing UIC's updated NET rank and quad record, it's clear that this win has given them a significant boost, and they want to build on this momentum in the coming weeks.