The Indiana State Sycamores will face off against the Southern Illinois Salukis on February 25 at the Banterra Center, a matchup that pits two teams vying for momentum heading into the Missouri Valley Conference tournament. With the Salukis holding a significant edge in the standings and a strong recent record, they enter this contest as heavy favorites. However, the Sycamores will look to capitalize on any potential vulnerabilities in their opponents' game to pull off an upset.
A win for Indiana State would require a significant turnaround from their current five-game losing streak, but they do possess certain strengths that could be exploited against Southern Illinois. The Salukis, meanwhile, still need to prove they can maintain their level of performance consistently, particularly against teams that may employ unconventional strategies to counter their strengths. As both teams jockey for position in the conference standings, this game takes on added importance, with the Salukis seeking to solidify their position and the Sycamores hoping to gain a crucial victory that could bolster their chances in the upcoming conference tournament.
Averaging 13.6 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, while also contributing 6.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. The team's recent form has been concerning, with losses in their last five games, including a 70-87 defeat at Belmont and a 60-81 loss versus Northern Iowa. His 6.7 rebounds per game have been a significant factor in Indiana State's overall performance, but the team's struggles have been evident, with a 10-19 overall record and a 3-15 mark in the MVC. With 11.7 points per game, has been another key contributor, adding 4.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game to the team's efforts.
The team's backcourt has been led by , who has averaged 10.0 points, 1.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game, while has provided 7.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, and a team-high 4.2 assists per game. His 4.2 assists per game have been crucial in setting up scoring opportunities for his teammates, including Derek Vorst, who has averaged 8.3 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. With their recent losses, including a 65-80 defeat at the hands of Southern Illinois, Indiana State will look to bounce back and improve their record, which currently stands at 10-19, including a 0-2 mark in Quad 1 games and a 1-5 record in Quad 2 games.
Averaging 14.9 points per game, 's scoring ability has been crucial for Southern Illinois, which enters the matchup with a 14-15 overall record and 8-10 mark in the Missouri Valley Conference. The team's recent form has been encouraging, with wins in four of their last five games, including a 59-57 victory at Northern Iowa and a 66-61 win at Drake. His 3.2 assists per game have also been vital in facilitating the team's offense.
With 's 7.5 rebounds per game leading the team, Southern Illinois has been able to control the boards in several key matchups. The team's leading scorer, Quel'Ron House, has been supported by the likes of , whose 9.8 points per game have provided a significant boost to the team's offense. 's 2.9 rebounds per game and 's 2.1 assists per game have also been important contributions, as Southern Illinois looks to build on its recent successes against Indiana State.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Ian Scott and Rolyns Aligbe will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. As the primary big men for their respective teams, their battle in the paint will have a significant impact on the rebounding and scoring margins. Scott's ability to score and rebound will be tested by Aligbe's athleticism and defensive prowess, while Aligbe's scoring will be challenged by Scott's size and strength. The team that emerges victorious in this individual matchup will likely gain a significant advantage on the glass and in the paint.
The contrast in styles between Scott and Aligbe adds an extra layer of intrigue to this matchup. Scott's well-rounded game, which includes scoring, rebounding, and playmaking, will be pitted against Aligbe's more specialized skillset, which focuses on scoring and rebounding. If Scott can exploit Aligbe's relatively low rebounding numbers against stronger opponents, Indiana State may be able to gain a decisive edge on the boards. Conversely, if Aligbe can use his quickness to stay in front of Scott and limit his scoring opportunities, Southern Illinois may be able to neutralize one of Indiana State's most potent threats.
CHD Scout Prediction
Indiana State
67
Southern Illinois
77
Based on the provided data, the model predicts a Southern Illinois victory, 77-67, with a 78.1% win probability. I agree with this assessment, as the significant disparity in NET rankings between the two teams suggests a substantial gap in overall quality. Specifically, Southern Illinois's notably higher NET ranking of 118 compared to Indiana State's 228 indicates a considerable difference in their respective strengths, which I believe will be the decisive factor in this matchup, leading me to predict a Southern Illinois win.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, both Indiana State and Southern Illinois are jockeying for position in the Missouri Valley Conference standings, with the ultimate goal of securing a favorable seed in the conference tournament. A win for Southern Illinois would not only bolster their chances of a higher seed, but also help to build momentum for a program looking to take a significant step forward. For Indiana State, a victory on the road would be a significant upset and a crucial boost to their conference tournament prospects, potentially altering the trajectory of their season. With the conference tournament representing the only path to postseason play for both teams, the stakes are high, and the outcome of this game will have a direct impact on their chances of making a deep run. The fact that Southern Illinois is favored by a significant margin, despite this being a Quad 4 game for them, underscores the disparity in expectations and suggests that anything less than a decisive win would be a disappointment, and a stark reminder that for these two teams, the margin between success and irrelevance is razor-thin.