As the college basketball season enters its critical stretch, the margin between tournament contenders and bubble teams is thinner than ever. For Oklahoma State, Thursday's matchup against Iowa State at Gallagher-Iba Arena is a golden opportunity to bolster their resume and climb out of the bubble conversation. The Cowboys, currently sporting a 73 NET ranking and a 0-3 record in Quad 1 games, desperately need a quality win to convince the selection committee of their legitimacy. With a 14-5 overall record, they're not out of the running just yet, but a loss would put them in a precarious position.
Iowa State, on the other hand, is firmly entrenched on the top-16 seed line, boasting a 6 NET ranking and a 4-2 record in Quad 1 games. The Cyclones have been one of the most consistent teams in the country, with a 17-2 overall record and a 4-2 mark in conference play. Their Quad 2 record is a perfect 6-0, and they've yet to lose to a Quad 4 opponent. According to the CHD Scout prediction, Iowa State is favored to win by 8.7 points, with Oklahoma State's win probability sitting at just 21.4%. While the Cowboys have shown flashes of brilliance, their inconsistency has been a major concern, as evidenced by their recent form: a loss, a win, and another loss.
CHD Scout Prediction
Iowa State
85
Oklahoma State
75
With no player momentum data to speak of, it's up to the teams' overall strengths and weaknesses to decide the outcome. Oklahoma State's Quad 1 struggles are a major red flag, and they'll need to find a way to overcome their woes against top-tier opponents if they hope to pull off the upset. Meanwhile, Iowa State want to continue their dominant run and solidify their position as a top seed in the tournament.
In the end, it's hard to see Oklahoma State overcoming their Quad 1 woes and taking down a team as talented as Iowa State. The Cyclones' consistency and impressive resume make them the clear favorite here. I'm predicting an Iowa State win, 85-75, with the Cyclones' balanced attack and stout defense proving too much for the Cowboys to handle. If Oklahoma State can't find a way to pull off the upset, they'll be left scrambling to salvage their tournament hopes in the coming weeks.