The Iowa State Cyclones, a projected NCAA Tournament team, will face off against the Utah Utes on February 24 at the Jon M. Huntsman Center. This matchup pits a heavily favored team against an underdog, with the Cyclones boasting a significant advantage in the standings and in the eyes of predictive models. Despite the disparity, the Utes will look to capitalize on any potential vulnerabilities in the Cyclones' game, seeking to pull off a major upset in front of their home crowd.
As the Cyclones, or ISU, look to bounce back from a recent loss, they will need to prove they can regain their footing on the road against a Utah, or the Utes, team that has struggled to find consistency this season. The Utes, meanwhile, will need to draw upon their strengths, including any potential advantages they may have at home, to stay competitive against a more talented opponent. An upset would require a nearly flawless performance from the Utes, but it would also provide a much-needed boost to their morale and momentum as they head into the final stretch of the season, with their only path to the NCAA Tournament being a conference tournament championship.
Averaging 17.5 points per game, has been a crucial component of Iowa State's offense, which has propelled the team to a 23-4 overall record and a 10-4 mark in the Big 12 conference. The team's leading scorer, backed by 's 16.4 points per game, has helped Iowa State secure key victories, including a 70-67 win over Houston on February 16. His 45% three-point shooting has been complemented by 's 13.3 points and 5.2 assists per game, making them a formidable duo on the court. With a NET ranking of #9, Iowa State has demonstrated its ability to compete against top-tier opponents, boasting a 6-4 record in Quad 1 games.
In recent games, 's 9.1 points per game have provided a spark off the bench, while 's 5.7 rebounds per game have helped anchor the team's defense. His ability to crash the boards has been essential in securing wins, such as the 74-56 victory over Kansas on February 14. Despite a loss to BYU on February 21, Iowa State's overall performance has been impressive, with a perfect 9-0 record in Quad 2 games and a 7-0 mark in Quad 4 contests. As the team prepares to face Utah, Joshua Jefferson's 7.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game will be critical in controlling the tempo and outmaneuvering their opponents.
Averaging 17.4 points per game, the team's leading scorer is supported by the efforts of , whose 3.0 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game make him a versatile contributor. His 17.4 points per game complement the 20.2 points per game from , whose 3.8 assists per game also make him a key playmaker. With averaging 9.2 rebounds per game, the team has a strong presence on the glass, and his 12.6 points per game provide additional scoring punch.
The Utes' recent form has been inconsistent, with a 71-73 loss to UCF and a 65-69 loss to Cincinnati in their last five games, although they did manage a 61-56 win at West Virginia. 's 9.3 points per game and 3.5 rebounds per game have been a steady presence, while Jacob Patrick's 7.2 points per game off the bench provide a spark. His 1.4 rebounds per game may not be as significant as the contributions of Keanu Dawes, but Jacob Patrick's role in the team's offense is still important, and with Terrence Brown's 2.4 rebounds per game, the team has multiple players who can contribute in different ways.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Joshua Jefferson and Keanu Dawes will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Jefferson's versatility, as evidenced by his balanced statistics, makes him a difficult assignment for any defender. Dawes, with his impressive rebounding numbers, will need to find a way to contain Jefferson's scoring while also protecting the glass. If Dawes can limit Jefferson's opportunities and secure rebounds, it could significantly impact Iowa State's ability to generate offense.
The contrast between Jefferson's well-rounded game and Dawes's rebounding prowess sets up an intriguing battle. Dawes's ability to outmuscle Jefferson on the boards could be a decisive factor, as it would allow Utah to control the tempo and limit Iowa State's second-chance opportunities. Conversely, if Jefferson can use his quickness and agility to evade Dawes and create scoring chances, it could swing the game in Iowa State's favor. The outcome of this individual matchup will likely have a profound impact on the team's overall performance.
CHD Scout Prediction
Iowa State
83
Utah
68
The model's prediction of an Iowa State victory, 83-68, with an 89.2% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the game. I agree with the model's forecast, as the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings suggests a substantial gap in their overall quality. Specifically, Iowa State's impressive 23-4 record, earning them a NET ranking of 9, indicates a level of performance and consistency that Utah, with a 10-17 record and NET ranking of 117, is unlikely to match, leading me to believe that Iowa State will emerge victorious.
Tournament Stakes
As the season enters its final stretch, this matchup carries significant implications for Iowa State's postseason positioning, with a win potentially bolstering their case for a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. A Quad 2 victory would maintain their unblemished record against Tier 2 opponents, reinforcing their resume as a legitimate contender. Conversely, a loss would not only mar their Quad 2 record but also constitute a Quad 1 defeat for Utah, which, although unlikely to alter the Utes' at-large prospects, would nonetheless provide a notable boost to their conference tournament prospects. With Iowa State's strong Quad 1 and Quad 2 records, they are well-positioned to solidify a favorable tournament seed, but a misstep against Utah could introduce unwelcome uncertainty into their postseason outlook, and a loss to a team as struggling as the Utes would be a glaring misstep for a team with legitimate Final Four aspirations.