In a stunning upset, Alcorn State, ranked 351 in the NET rankings, handed Jackson State, ranked 341, a resounding 18-point defeat, 83-65. The margin of victory is all the more surprising given the relatively narrow difference in their NET rankings, suggesting a closely contested matchup. However, the final score reveals a dominant performance by Alcorn State, particularly in the second half, where they outscored Jackson State 49-31.
The first half ended in a 34-34 tie, but Alcorn State's second-half surge proved too much for Jackson State to overcome. The significant disparity in second-half scoring underscores Alcorn State's ability to adapt and capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. As the season enters its final stretch, this upset has significant implications for seed line projections, potentially altering the trajectory of both teams' postseason aspirations. With this victory, Alcorn State has made a statement, while Jackson State will need to regroup and reassess their strategy moving forward.
Tycen McDaniels led the way for Alcorn State, posting a dominant stat line with 25 points and 14 rebounds, while also contributing 2 assists and 2 blocks. His efficiency from the free-throw line was notable, converting 13 of 14 attempts. McDaniels' performance was complemented by Jameel Morris, who scored 22 points on 7-11 shooting from the field, including 1-3 from beyond the arc. Morris also added 3 rebounds and 2 assists to his tally.
Shane Lancaster provided additional scoring punch for Alcorn State, finishing with 11 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 assists. Although Lancaster struggled with his field goal percentage, shooting just 2-9, he made up for it by connecting on 5 of 8 free-throw attempts and hitting 2 of 7 three-pointers. The collective efforts of McDaniels, Morris, and Lancaster helped propel Alcorn State to an 83-65 victory over Jackson State.
Daeshun Ruffin led the way for Jackson State, scoring 21 points on 7-15 shooting from the field. While his performance was a notable bright spot, it ultimately was not enough to propel his team to victory. Ruffin's ability to get to the free throw line, where he went 7-12, was a key aspect of his scoring, but his lack of rebounding presence, with only one board, limited his overall impact on the game.
Dionjahe Thomas and Jayme Mitchell Jr. provided complementary scoring for Jackson State, with 14 and 13 points, respectively. Thomas was efficient from the field, going 5-8, and also made a significant contribution on the defensive end with four blocks. Mitchell Jr. struggled with his shot at times, hitting just 5-14 from the field, but did manage to connect on 3-8 from beyond the arc. Despite their solid individual efforts, the trio was unable to overcome the balanced attack of Alcorn State, and their team fell short by a significant margin.
Dorian McMillian's performance significantly deviated from his season averages, as he scored nearly 10 points below his typical output, with a 2-point showing that marked a -9.9 point drop from his average of 11.9 points per game, while his rebounding was slightly above his average, and his assists and blocks fell short of his season norms, collectively resulting in an off-night for the Jackson State player.
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Final
The pre-game prediction of an Alcorn State victory by nearly 7 points proved correct, albeit with a wider margin of victory than anticipated. The actual 18-point differential was a testament to the home team's ability to assert its dominance over Jackson State. While the prediction was broadly correct, the magnitude of the win was not fully anticipated, suggesting that there were key factors at play that contributed to the larger-than-expected gap.
A closer examination of the team statistics reveals that rebounding and shooting efficiency played crucial roles in determining the outcome. Alcorn State's significant advantage in offensive rebounding rate, nearly 16 percentage points above its season average, allowed the team to control the tempo and limit Jackson State's opportunities. Additionally, while neither team shot particularly well from beyond the arc, Alcorn State's overall shooting efficiency, although slightly below its season average, still outpaced that of Jackson State, which struggled to find its rhythm on offense. These factors, combined with the home team's ability to capitalize on its rebounding advantage, ultimately led to the decisive victory.
The outcome of this contest has significant implications for both teams' NCAA Tournament prospects, albeit in vastly different ways. For Alcorn State, the victory, albeit in a Quad 4 game, provides a much-needed boost to their resume, which was previously bereft of notable wins. While their overall record and NET ranking still pose significant hurdles, this win could potentially elevate them from a 16-seed to a 15-seed in the tournament, should they manage to secure an automatic bid. Conversely, Jackson State's loss further diminishes their already slim tournament hopes, as their Quad 1 and 2 records remain unblemished in the wrong direction. With their NET ranking and overall record continuing to trend in the wrong direction, it's increasingly likely that Jackson State will be relegated to a play-in game, if they're fortunate enough to receive an at-large bid at all. This loss serves as a stark reminder that, in the world of college basketball, a team is only as strong as its weakest link, and for Jackson State, that link is their inability to win games that matter.