The University of Kansas Jayhawks and the University of Arizona Wildcats are set to clash in a pivotal matchup on February 28 at the McKale Memorial Center, with significant implications for conference supremacy and seed lines in the NCAA Tournament. As two of the nation's elite programs, this game will be scrutinized on national broadcasts, with both teams vying for position on the coveted top seed lines. Kansas, currently sitting at 11-4 in the Big 12, will look to bolster its resume against a Wildcats team that boasts a 13-2 record in the Pac-12.
The contrast between these two teams will be on full display, with Arizona's impressive 26-2 record and NET ranking of #3 pitting them as a formidable favorite against Kansas, who, despite a strong 21-7 record, has shown vulnerability in recent form, going 3-2 over their last five games. The Jayhawks, projected as a tournament team with a NET ranking of #13, will need to elevate their performance to compete with the Wildcats, who are predicted to win by a significant margin according to model projections. With both teams firmly entrenched in the tournament picture, this matchup will serve as a litmus test for their respective abilities to compete at the highest level.
Averaging 18.3 points per game between them, the trio of , , and has been crucial to Kansas's success, with the team boasting a 21-7 overall record and an 11-4 mark in the Big 12. The team's leading scorer, Darryn Peterson, has been instrumental in key victories, including the recent 69-56 win over Houston, where his 19.1 points per game average was on full display. With his 45% three-point shooting, Darryn Peterson has been a consistent threat from beyond the arc. His 3.7 rebounds per game also demonstrate his ability to contribute on the glass.
His 9.0 rebounds per game a testament to his dominance in the paint, Flory Bidunga has been a force to be reckoned with, while 's 5.0 assists per game have been vital in facilitating the team's offense. Averaging 13.9 points per game, Tre White has been a reliable scorer, and with chipping in 8.9 points per game, the Jayhawks have a balanced attack that has served them well, particularly in their 8-6 record against Quad 1 opponents. With their recent form showing a mix of convincing wins, such as the 81-69 victory at Oklahoma State, and tough losses, like the 68-84 defeat to Cincinnati, Kansas will look to build on their momentum as they head into the matchup against Arizona.
Averaging 13.8 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Arizona's success, complemented by his 5.4 rebounds per game. The team's leading scorer is not solely defined by one player, as , with his 15.5 points per game, and , with 13.9 points per game, have also played significant roles. His 4.7 assists per game make Jaden Bradley a key facilitator for Arizona's offense, allowing players like to capitalize on scoring opportunities.
With a 26-2 overall record, Arizona has demonstrated its strength, particularly in its last five games, where it has secured wins against Baylor, Houston, and BYU, albeit with losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. 's 10.1 points per game have been a consistent factor, while Motiejus Krivas has been a force on the boards, averaging 8.4 rebounds per game. His 45% three-point shooting is not the only notable statistic, as Brayden Burries has also shown his ability to score from beyond the arc, making him a threat from multiple areas of the court.
The matchup between Kansas' Flory Bidunga and Arizona's Koa Peat will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Bidunga's ability to dominate the paint, averaging 9.0 rebounds per game, will be tested by Peat's versatility and athleticism. Peat's rebounding average of 5.4 per game is respectable, but he will need to elevate his performance to contain Bidunga's presence in the paint. If Bidunga can assert his dominance on the glass, it could limit Arizona's second-chance opportunities and give Kansas a significant advantage.
The Bidunga-Peat matchup will also be crucial in terms of each team's overall strategy. If Peat can hold his own against Bidunga, Arizona may be able to stretch the defense with their perimeter shooters, creating space for their guards to operate. Conversely, if Bidunga can overpower Peat, Kansas may be able to establish a strong interior presence, allowing their guards to play off the big man and create scoring opportunities. The outcome of this individual battle will have a significant impact on the team's overall game plan and ultimately, the outcome of the game.
CHD Scout Prediction
Kansas
68
Arizona
82
The model's prediction of an Arizona victory, 82-68, with an 87.0% win probability, aligns with my own assessment of the matchup. I agree with the model's forecast, as Arizona's superior overall record and NET ranking suggest a significant advantage. Specifically, Arizona's impressive 26-2 record, earning them a NET ranking of #3, indicates a level of consistency and strength that I believe Kansas, with a NET ranking of #13, will struggle to overcome, leading me to predict an Arizona win.
This matchup carries significant implications for both teams' postseason positioning, particularly in terms of seeding. A win for Arizona would bolster its case for a top-two seed, given its already impressive Quad 1 record and high NET ranking. For Kansas, a victory on the road against a top-three team would be a substantial boost to its resume, potentially vaulting it into consideration for a top-four seed. As it stands, Kansas's strong performance in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games has it well-positioned for an at-large bid, and a win in this Quad 1 matchup would only strengthen its claim. Ultimately, the outcome of this game will have a profound impact on the NCAA Tournament landscape, and Kansas's ability to pull off the upset would be a resounding statement that it is more than just a tournament team - it's a legitimate title contender.