The University of Kansas Jayhawks and the Arizona State University Sun Devils are set to face off in a crucial conference matchup at Desert Financial Arena on March 3. This game holds significant implications for both teams, particularly Kansas, as they aim to solidify their position in the Big 12 standings and bolster their postseason résumé. With Kansas currently sitting at 11-5 in conference play, a win against Arizona State would help them maintain their footing in the competitive Big 12 landscape. Meanwhile, Arizona State, with a 6-10 conference record, is looking to play spoiler and gain momentum heading into the conference tournament.
The margins between these two teams are expected to be slim, with Kansas holding a narrow edge according to predictive models. The Jayhawks' recent form has been inconsistent, with a 2-3 record over their last five games, while Arizona State has shown flashes of resilience with a 3-2 mark over the same span. As Kansas looks to rebound from a convincing loss to Arizona, they will need to be focused and composed against an Arizona State team that is capable of pulling off an upset. With the Jayhawks' NCAA Tournament prospects already on firmer ground, this game serves as an opportunity for them to fine-tune their performance ahead of the postseason, while Arizona State seeks to build momentum for a potential conference tournament run.
Averaging 18.3 points per game is not the case for any single player, but the team's leading scorer, , is putting up 19.3 points per game, alongside 3.8 rebounds. His performance has been crucial in Kansas's current season, which stands at 21-8 overall and 11-5 in the Big 12 conference. With a NET ranking of #15, the team has shown resilience, particularly in its Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, where it has compiled a 7-7 and 8-1 record, respectively. The team's recent form has been mixed, with losses to Arizona and Cincinnati, but also wins against Houston and Oklahoma State.
His 45% three-point shooting is not a notable stat for any player, but 's 13.6 points per game and 8.8 rebounds have been vital to the team's success. The team's recent losses, including a 61-84 defeat at Arizona, have been balanced by wins like the 69-56 victory over Houston, where 's 13.8 points per game average and 6.6 rebounds were key. 's 5.0 assists per game have also been important, as has 's 6.0 rebounds per game, in the team's push for a strong finish to the season, heading into the game against Arizona State.
Averaging 13.8 points per game, has been a crucial contributor to Arizona State's offense, while his 5.9 rebounds per game have also been vital to the team's overall performance. The team's recent form has been marked by inconsistency, with wins over Utah and Texas Tech in their last five games, but also losses to TCU and Baylor. His teammate, , has been the team's second-leading scorer, with 13.6 points per game, and has also chipped in with 3.0 rebounds per game.
With 17.1 points per game, has been the team's leading scorer, and his 5.9 assists per game have been instrumental in creating scoring opportunities for his teammates, including , who has averaged 8.0 points per game. His 45% three-point shooting has been a key factor in the team's offense, and has also made significant contributions, with 7.3 points per game. As Arizona State prepares to face Kansas, they will need to draw on the strengths of these key players to secure a win.
Key Matchups
The matchup between Flory Bidunga and Massamba Diop will be pivotal in determining the outcome of this game. Bidunga, Kansas's versatile big man, will need to use his rebounding prowess to outmuscle Diop, who has been a consistent scoring threat for Arizona State. With Bidunga averaging 8.8 rebounds per game, he has the potential to limit Diop's opportunities on the glass and force him to work harder for his points. If Bidunga can contain Diop and secure key rebounds, it could give Kansas a significant advantage in the paint.
The battle between Bidunga and Diop will also be a test of each player's ability to adapt to different defensive looks. Diop's relatively low rebounding average suggests that he may struggle to keep up with Bidunga's physicality, but he has shown an ability to score from various spots on the court. Meanwhile, Bidunga's well-rounded game, which includes 1.6 assists per game, makes him a difficult matchup for Diop, who may need to expend energy on both ends of the court to keep up with Bidunga's activity level. The winner of this individual matchup will likely have a significant impact on the team's overall performance.
CHD Scout Prediction
Kansas
77
Arizona State
73
The model predicts a Kansas victory, 77-73, with a 62.3% win probability, and I agree with this assessment. The primary reason for my concurrence is the significant disparity in the teams' NET rankings, with Kansas sitting at #15 and Arizona State at #73, indicating a substantial gap in overall team strength. This difference in ranking suggests that Kansas has consistently performed at a higher level throughout the season, which I believe will ultimately give them the edge they need to secure a win on the road against Arizona State.
Tournament Stakes
As the regular season winds down, this matchup holds significant implications for Kansas' postseason positioning, particularly in terms of seeding. A win would bolster their resume, adding to their already impressive Quad 1 record, and potentially solidify a favorable spot in the NCAA Tournament bracket. Conversely, a loss would not only tarnish their Quad 1 mark but also raise concerns about their ability to perform against quality opponents on the road. For Arizona State, the outcome is less about seeding and more about keeping their faint conference tournament title hopes alive, as their only viable path to the NCAA Tournament is by claiming the automatic bid. With this game classified as Quad 1 for both teams, the stakes are high, and Kansas' performance will be scrutinized closely, as a loss to a subpar Arizona State team would be a damaging Quad 1 defeat, one that could ultimately haunt them on Selection Sunday.